EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis, December 24-28, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Introduction: This is one of the most popular crosses. The primary reason why EUR/JPY has rallied 11 percent over the past 3.5 months is because of US

EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis, December 24-28, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: This is one of the most popular crosses. The primary reason why EUR/JPY has rallied 11 percent over the past 3.5 months is because of US growth – not many people realize that the price action of EUR/JPY is directly correlated with how the US economy is doing.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY closed the week at 111.09 after hitting a new 2012 high of 112.49 as the euro gained momentum on strong US eco data and the possible resolution of the fiscal cliff sent traders looking for more risk for their portfolios in the last few days of the year. Talks collapsed at the end of the week as traders ran for safe havens helping the JPY to recover a bit of momentum after the BoJ injected an additional 10trillion yen into the economy. The euro fell a bit and the JPY gained as this pair edged down from its high just a day before.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Dec 21, 2012	111.09	111.76	111.78	110.63	-0.60%
Dec 20, 2012	111.76	111.31	112.15	110.74	0.41%
Dec 19, 2012	111.30	111.59	112.49	110.83	-0.26%
Dec 18, 2012	111.59	110.45	111.62	110.38	1.03%
Dec 17, 2012	110.46	110.80	110.80	109.94	-0.30%

I would like to take this time to express my best wishes to all of my readers during this holiday season and extend the best hopes for profitable trading in 2013.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks

Major Economic Events for the week of December 17-21 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 17	13:30	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-8.1	-1.0	-5.2
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions	1.3B	25.0B	3.2B
Dec. 18	13:30	USD	Current Account	-107.5B	-103.4B	-118.1B
	21:45	NZD	Current Account	-4.42B	-4.40B	-1.80B
	23:50	JPY	Trade Balance	-0.87T	-0.81T	-0.62T
Dec. 19	13:30	USD	Building Permits	0.899M	0.875M	0.868M
	13:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.861M	0.873M	0.888M
	21:45	NZD	GDP (QoQ)	0.2%	0.4%	0.3%
Dec. 20	04:00	JPY	Interest Rate Decision	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%
	13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	361K	357K	344K
	13:30	USD	GDP (QoQ)	3.1%	2.8%	2.7%
	13:30	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3225K	3199K	3213K
	15:00	USD	Existing Home Sales	5.04M	4.87M	4.76M
	15:00	USD	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index	8.1	-3.0	-10.7
Dec. 21	13:30	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	1.6%	-0.2%	1.9%
	13:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM)	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	0.7%	0.2%	1.1%
	13:30	USD	Personal Spending (MoM)	0.4%	0.3%	-0.1%
	14:55	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	72.9	74.7	74.5

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 134.38 JPY on Jan 11, 2010

Average: 111.13 JPY over this period.

Lowest: 94.12 JPY on July 24, 2012

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 27	23:30	JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)	-0.5%	-0.5%
	23:50	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.5%	1.6%
	23:50	JPY	Retail Sales (YoY)	1.1%	-1.2%