Advertisement
Advertisement
EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 5 – 9, 2012, Forecast
By:
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/JPY closed at 103.21 a few pips from higher then the open on Monday at 102.92. The EUR/JPY was trading near a
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/JPY closed at 103.21 a few pips from higher then the open on Monday at 102.92. The EUR/JPY was trading near a recent range support heading into today’s (11/2) Non-Farm Payroll release. It came out 171K, beating forecast of 123K. The initial reaction reflected conventional risk-on dynamic, pushing the EUR/JPY near 103.80. However this rally proved unsustainable as the market faded the pair in the hour following the NFP release.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Nov 02, 2012 |
103.21 |
103.86 |
103.86 |
103.06 |
-0.62% |
|
Nov 01, 2012 |
103.86 |
103.54 |
103.99 |
103.34 |
0.31% |
|
Oct 31, 2012 |
103.54 |
103.27 |
103.94 |
103.08 |
0.25% |
|
Oct 30, 2012 |
103.28 |
102.97 |
103.36 |
102.18 |
0.30% |
|
Oct 29, 2012 |
102.97 |
102.92 |
103.16 |
102.53 |
0.04% |
Eventually as we wind down the week, EUR/JPY has broken this week’s range. Maybe the 103.00 psychological level can provide support, but if a pullback is prevented from pushing back above 103.50, the focus remains to the downside in the short-term
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks
Major Economic Events for last week actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Oct. 29 |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.8% |
0.6% |
0.5% |
|
|
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-4.1% |
-3.3% |
-1.6% |
|
Oct. 30 |
AUD |
HIA New Home Sales (MoM) |
-3.7% |
|
-5.3% |
|
|
JPY |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.10% |
0.10% |
0.10% |
|
|
NZD |
Building Consents (MoM) |
7.8% |
3.0% |
1.9% |
|
Oct. 31 |
AUD |
Building Approvals (MoM) |
7.8% |
1.0% |
8.8% |
|
|
USD |
Employment Cost Index (QoQ) |
0.4% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
|
USD |
Chicago PMI |
49.9 |
51.0 |
49.7 |
|
Nov. 01 |
CNY |
Chinese Manufacturing PMI |
50.20 |
50.30 |
49.80 |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
49.50 |
49.10 |
49.10 |
|
|
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
158K |
135K |
114K |
|
|
USD |
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) |
1.9% |
1.6% |
1.9% |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
363K |
370K |
372K |
|
|
USD |
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) |
-0.1% |
1.0% |
1.7% |
|
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3263K |
3250K |
3259K |
|
|
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
72.2 |
72.5 |
68.4 |
|
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
51.7 |
51.2 |
51.5 |
|
Nov. 02 |
AUD |
PPI (QoQ) |
0.6% |
1.2% |
0.5% |
|
|
USD |
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
|
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
171K |
125K |
148K |
|
|
USD |
Average Weekly Hours |
34.4 |
34.5 |
34.4 |
|
|
USD |
Private Nonfarm Payrolls |
184K |
125K |
128K |
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest: 134.38 JPY on Jan 11, 2010
Average: 111.13 JPY over this period.
Lowest: 94.12 JPY on July 24, 2012
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Nov. 05 |
00:30 |
AUD |
0.4% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
00:30 |
AUD |
-1.65B |
-2.03B |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
54.5 |
55.1 |
|
|
|
21:45 |
NZD |
|
-0.1% |
|
|
|
21:45 |
NZD |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
|
Nov. 06 |
00:30 |
AUD |
1.00% |
0.50% |
|
|
|
03:30 |
AUD |
3.00% |
3.25% |
|
|
Nov. 07 |
21:45 |
NZD |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
|
|
Nov. 08 |
00:30 |
AUD |
|
14.5K |
|
|
Nov. 09 |
01:30 |
CNY |
1.9% |
1.9% |
|
|
|
01:30 |
CNY |
-2.7% |
-3.6% |
|
|
|
01:30 |
CNY |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
05:30 |
CNY |
20.6% |
20.5% |
|
|
|
05:30 |
CNY |
9.4% |
9.2% |
|
|
|
05:30 |
CNY |
14.1% |
14.2% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Nov 05 10:10 Norway
Nov 06 10:10 Greece
Nov 06 10:15 Austria
Nov 06 10:30 Belgium
Nov 06 10:30 UK
Nov 06 15:30 UK
Nov 06 18:00 US
Nov 07 10:30 Germany
Nov 07 15:30 Sweden
Nov 07 18:00 US
Nov 08 9:30 Spain
Nov 08 10:10 Sweden
Nov 08 16:30 Italy
Nov 08 18:00 US
Nov 09 11:00 Belgium
Nov 09 16:30 Italy
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
Advertisement