Bob Mason
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Economic Calendar:

Thursday, 18th February

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Flash)

Friday, 19th February

French CPI (MoM) (Jan) Final

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French HICP (MoM) (Jan) Final

French Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Prelim

French Services PMI (Feb) Prelim

German Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Prelim

German Services PMI (Feb) Prelim

Italian CPI (MoM) (Jan) Final

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Prelim

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (Feb) Prelim

Eurozone Services PMI (Feb) Prelim


The Majors

It was a mixed day for the European majors on Tuesday. While the DAX30 and EuroStoxx600 fell by 0.32% and by 0.06% respectively, the CAC40 ended the day flat.

Economic data from early in the European session had provided support to the majors before a pullback later in the day.

While optimism towards the economic outlook continues to support the European majors and the broader markets, a degree of uncertainty also lingers.

Containment measures remain in place as the EU progresses on the vaccination front. Until restrictions are removed the economic uncertainty will likely remain.

The Stats

It was a relatively busy day on the economic calendar. Economic data included 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the Eurozone and ZEW economic sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone.

According to 2nd estimates, the Eurozone economy contracted by 0.6% in the 4th quarter. This was an upward revision from a 1st estimate 0.7% contraction.

Year-on-year, the economy contracted by 5.0%, which was also an upward revision from a 1st estimate 5.1% contraction.

According to Eurostat,

  • The number of employed persons increased by 0.3% in 4th quarter, compared with the 3rd
  • In the 3rd quarter of 2020, employment had increased by 1.0%.
  • Year-on-year, however, employment was down by 2.0%.

Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose from 61.8 to 71.2 for February. Economists had forecast a fall to 59.6.

The upside came in spite of sentiment towards current conditions fell deeper into the red. For February, the ZEW Current Conditions Index fell from -66.4 to -67.2. Economists had forecast a decline to -67.0.

For the Eurozone, the Economic Sentiment Index jumped from 58.3 to 69.8.

From the U.S

Key stats included NY Empire State Manufacturing Index figures.

In February, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index increased from 3.5 to 12.1. Economists had forecast a rise to 6.0.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was mixed day for the auto sector on Wednesday. BMW and Volkswagen saw modest gains of 0.08% and 0.02% respectively. Continental and Daimler, however, ended the day down by 1.06% and by 0.20% respectively.

It was another bullish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank rallied by 2.03%, with Commerzbank rising by 0.69%.

From the CAC, it was a relatively bullish day for the banks. BNP Paribas and Soc Gen rose by 0.13% and by 0.03% respectively, with Credit Agricole gaining 0.54%.

It was also a bullish day for the French auto sector, however. Stellantis NV rose by 0.94%, with Renault gaining 1.18%.

Air France-KLM slipped by 0.18%, while Airbus SE rose by 0.14%.

On the VIX Index

It was back into the green for the VIX on Tuesday. Reversing a 6.02% fall from Friday, the VIX rose by 7.46% to end the day at 21.46.

The NASDAQ and the S&P500 fell by 0.06% and by 0.34% respectively, while the Dow gained 0.20%.

The Day Ahead

It’s a quiet day ahead on the European economic calendar. There are no material stats from the Eurozone to provide the majors with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the majors in the hands of U.S stats and chatter from Capitol Hill.

From the U.S, wholesale inflation and retail sales figures are due out. Expect January’s retail sales figures to have an impact on the majors late in the session.

Chatter from Capitol Hill will also need continued monitoring.

Overnight, the FOMC meeting minutes are also due out. There could be some caution ahead of the minutes. FED Chair Powell has continued to assure the markets that accommodative measures will remain for an extended period of time. The minutes will need to be aligned…

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 9 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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