Bob Mason
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Economic Calendar:

 Tuesday, 30th June

French Consumer Spending (MoM) (May)

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Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q1) Final

Italian CPI (MoM) (Jun) Prelim

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Jun) Prelim

Wednesday, 1st July

German Retail Sales (MoM) (May)

Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

Italian Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

French Manufacturing PMI (Jun) Final

German Manufacturing PMI (Jun) Final

German Unemployment Change (Jun)

German Unemployment Rate (Jun)

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jun) Final

Thursday, 2nd July

Eurozone Unemployment Rate (May)

Friday, 3rd July

Spanish Services PMI (Jun)

Italian Services PMI (Jun)

French Services PMI (Jun) Final

German Services PMI (Jun) Final

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (Jun) Final

Eurozone Services PMI (Jun) Final


The Majors

It was a relatively bullish start to the week as the majors looked to recover from Friday’s COVID-19 driven pullback.

The DAX30 rose by 1.18% to lead the way, with the CAC40 and EuroStoxx600 seeing gains of 0.73% and 0.44% respectively.

Economic data out of China from Sunday and the U.S on Monday contributed to the upside on the day. It was U.S stimulus talk once more, however, that drove the majors. A bounce in the U.S markets late in the European session supported the stronger gains on the day.

Concerns over COVID-19 and the increased risk of a 2nd wave continued to pin back the majors on the day.

The Stats

It was a quiet day on the Eurozone economic calendar on Monday. June’s prelim inflation figures for Germany and Spain were in focus on the day.

The numbers had a muted impact on the majors, however, in spite of better than expected numbers.

In Spain, consumer prices fell by 0.3% in June, according to prelim figures, following a 0.9% decline in May. From Germany, consumer prices rose by 0.6%, reversing a 0.1% decline in May.

From the U.S

It was a relatively quiet day, with economic data limited to pending home sales for May that impressed. Pending home sales surged by 44.3%, month-on-month, reversing a 21.8% slide from April.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bullish day for the auto sector on Monday. Continental and Daimler led the way, rallying by 2.95% and 2.80% respectively. BMW and Volkswagen weren’t far behind, with gains of 1.83% and 1.55% respectively.

It was a particularly bullish day for the banks, with Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank seeing gains of 4.38% and 5.65% respectively.

WIRECARD AG continued to grab the headlines, surging by 151.42%. News of interest in buying parts of the business drove shares northwards on the day.

From the CAC, the banks reversed losses from Friday at the start of the week. Credit Agricole led the way, rallying by 3.74%. BNP Paribas and Soc Gen rose by 2.51% and 2.97% respectively.

The French auto sector also found support, with Peugeot and Renault ending the day up by 2.35% and 5.25% respectively.

Air France-KLM and Airbus SE gained 3.27% and 2.38% respectively.

On the VIX Index

The pendulum swung back in the favour of riskier assets on Monday, leaving the VIX back in the red. Reversing a 7.79% rise from Friday, the VIX fell by 8.49% to end the day at 31.78.

At the start of the week, the markets beyond COVID-19 woes, as talk of further stimulus supported the U.S indexes

The S&P500 and Dow rose by 1.47% and by 2.32% respectively, with the NASDAQ gaining a more modest 1.20%.

The Day Ahead

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar. French consumer spending figures for May and prelim June inflation figures for the Eurozone are due out.

Also due out are prelim inflation figures from Italy and finalized 1st quarter GDP numbers from Spain. These should have a muted impact on the day, however.

From the U.S

It’s also a relatively busy day ahead, with June’s Chicago PMI and consumer confidence figures are due out later in the session. Expect both sets of numbers to have some influence on the European majors.

Ahead of the European open, expect private sector PMIs from China to set the tone.

Away from the numbers, expect COVID-19 and geopolitics to continue to be an area of focus and influence.

The Latest Coronavirus Figures

On Monday, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 153,341 to 10,382,371. On Sunday, the number of new cases had risen by 136,417. The daily increase was higher than Sunday’s rise and up from 126,214 new cases from the previous Monday.

Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 803 new cases on Monday, which was up from 650 new cases on Sunday. On the previous Monday, 952 new cases had been reported.

From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 41,940 to 2,674,382 on Monday. On Sunday, the total number of cases had risen by 35,905. On Monday, 22nd June, a total of 29,864 new cases had been reported.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow was up by 18 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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