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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis November 24, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Nov 23, 2015, 12:24 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD paid very little attention to slightly better than expected manufacturing PMI from Germany and the overall

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis November 24, 2015 – Forecast

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis November 24, 2015 - Forecast
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis November 24, 2015 - Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD paid very little attention to slightly better than expected manufacturing PMI from Germany and the overall Eurozone as the greenback continued its climb breaking above 100 in the early morning. The pair is down 16 points at 1.0630. Growing confidence that the US will raise interest rates next month boosted the dollar in Asia on Monday weighing on commodities, while the euro hit a seven-month low on speculation of more ECB easing. US stocks capped their best week this year on Friday as investors digested growing signs the Federal Reserve thinks the world’s top economy is strong enough to handle a rate rise next month.

The prospect of the first increase for almost a decade boosted the greenback, but dragged down raw materials and energy shares as the stronger dollar made them more expensive for international investors.

The euro, meanwhile, fell after European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi on Friday hinted the lender could unleash further stimulus to boost stubbornly low inflation in the eurozone. His pledge to “do what we must” to lift prices fueled expectations the bank could expand its already vast easing scheme next month, dragging the single currency to its lowest point since mid-April.

Draghi’s remarks contrasted sharply with comments from San Francisco Fed president John Williams over the weekend, who said there was a “strong case” for an increase in December.

Market expectations were also rallied by minutes from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday which showed its policymakers are satisfied the US economy is strong enough to withstand a rate hike next month.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Japan – Labour Thanksgiving Day

  EUR

 

German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)  

52.6

52.0

52.1

 

 

  EUR

 

German Services PMI (Nov)  

55.6

54.3

54.5

 

 

  EUR

 

Manufacturing PMI (Nov)  

52.8

52.3

52.3

 

 

  EUR

 

Markit Composite PMI (Nov)  

54.4

53.9

53.9

 

 

  EUR

 

Services PMI (Nov)  

54.6

54.1

54.1

 

 

  EUR

 

German Buba President Weidmann

 

 

 

   

 

eurusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  EUR

 

German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

 

0.3%

0.3%

 

 

  EUR

 

German GDP (YoY) (Q3)

 

1.8%

1.8%

 

 

  EUR

 

German Business Expectations (Nov)

 

104.0

103.8

 

 

  EUR

 

German Current Assessment (Nov)

 

112.4

112.6

 

 

  EUR

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index (

 

108.2

108.2

 

 

  USD

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

 

2.0%

1.5%

 

 

  USD

 

GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3)

 

1.2%

1.2%

 

 

  USD

 

Goods Trade Balance (Oct)

 

 

-58.63B

 

 

  USD

 

S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a.

 

5.2%

5.1%

 

 

  USD

 

CB Consumer Confidence (Nov)

 

99.5

97.6

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

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