Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD paid very little attention to slightly better than expected manufacturing PMI from Germany and the overall
The EUR/USD paid very little attention to slightly better than expected manufacturing PMI from Germany and the overall Eurozone as the greenback continued its climb breaking above 100 in the early morning. The pair is down 16 points at 1.0630. Growing confidence that the US will raise interest rates next month boosted the dollar in Asia on Monday weighing on commodities, while the euro hit a seven-month low on speculation of more ECB easing. US stocks capped their best week this year on Friday as investors digested growing signs the Federal Reserve thinks the world’s top economy is strong enough to handle a rate rise next month.
The prospect of the first increase for almost a decade boosted the greenback, but dragged down raw materials and energy shares as the stronger dollar made them more expensive for international investors.
The euro, meanwhile, fell after European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi on Friday hinted the lender could unleash further stimulus to boost stubbornly low inflation in the eurozone. His pledge to “do what we must” to lift prices fueled expectations the bank could expand its already vast easing scheme next month, dragging the single currency to its lowest point since mid-April.
Draghi’s remarks contrasted sharply with comments from San Francisco Fed president John Williams over the weekend, who said there was a “strong case” for an increase in December.
Market expectations were also rallied by minutes from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday which showed its policymakers are satisfied the US economy is strong enough to withstand a rate hike next month.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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Japan – Labour Thanksgiving Day |
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EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
52.6 |
52.0 |
52.1 |
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EUR |
German Services PMI (Nov) |
55.6 |
54.3 |
54.5 |
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EUR |
Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
52.8 |
52.3 |
52.3 |
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EUR |
Markit Composite PMI (Nov) |
54.4 |
53.9 |
53.9 |
|
||
EUR |
Services PMI (Nov) |
54.6 |
54.1 |
54.1 |
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EUR |
German Buba President Weidmann |
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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Tuesday, November 24, 2015
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
EUR |
German GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
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EUR |
German GDP (YoY) (Q3) |
|
1.8% |
1.8% |
|
||
EUR |
German Business Expectations (Nov) |
|
104.0 |
103.8 |
|
||
EUR |
German Current Assessment (Nov) |
|
112.4 |
112.6 |
|
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EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate Index ( |
|
108.2 |
108.2 |
|
||
USD |
GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
2.0% |
1.5% |
|
||
USD |
GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
||
USD |
Goods Trade Balance (Oct) |
|
|
-58.63B |
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||
USD |
S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. |
|
5.2% |
5.1% |
|
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USD |
CB Consumer Confidence (Nov) |
|
99.5 |
97.6 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs
Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction
Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov
Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL
Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction
Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei
Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund
Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction
Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction
Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus