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EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, November 23 – November 27, 2015 Forecast

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Nov 21, 2015, 16:43 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:  Last week featured a two-sided trade by the EUR/USD. Early in the week, buyers came in at 1.0616 as the market

EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, November 23 – November 27, 2015 Forecast

EURUSD 2
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:  Last week featured a two-sided trade by the EUR/USD. Early in the week, buyers came in at 1.0616 as the market approached the April 13 bottom at 1.0520. The move was strong enough to fuel a rally into 1.0762. The catalyst for the rally was less-hawkish Fed minutes. The rally wasn’t meant to last because European Central Bank President put an end to it by reiterating that additional stimulus was coming.

Since most investors expect the Fed to raise rates in December, the focus has shifted to future rate hikes. Bearish traders lightened up on their selling as they expressed concerns about the Fed’s use of the word “gradual” when it comes to additional rate hikes in the future.

Draghi ended the rally when he said the ECB is ready to act quickly to boost anemic inflation in the Euro Zone. Draghi said, “If we decide (on Dec. 3) that the current trajectory of our policy is not sufficient to achieve our objective, we will do what we must to raise inflation as quickly as possible.”

At its next meeting on December 3, the ECB is expected to unveil a series of steps designed to stimulate the economy. These include changes to the ECB’s asset purchase program and deposit rate.

This week is a U.S. holiday week so volume is expected to be below average. The thin trading conditions could trigger a volatile response especially in reaction to the Euro Zone PMI reports on Monday and the U.S. GDP report on Tuesday. Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI is expected to show a 52.3 reading. Preliminary GDP is expected to come in at 2.0%.

The reports and thin-trading conditions could produce a two-sided trade over the short-run, but the EUR/USD is likely to trade lower over the long-run because of the impending Fed rate hike and additional stimulus from the ECB.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports. 

Weekly EUR/USD
Weekly EUR/USD

 Reports to Watch This Week: 

         Date                 Time          Curr                             Event                                                                            Forecast  Previous

Sun Nov 22

6:00am ET

EUR

 

German Buba President Weidmann Speaks

         

Mon Nov 23

3:00am ET

EUR

 

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

   

50.7

50.6

 
   

EUR

 

French Flash Services PMI

   

52.1

52.7

 
 

3:30am ET

EUR

 

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

   

52.2

52.1

 
   

EUR

 

German Flash Services PMI

   

54.3

54.5

 
 

4:00am ET

EUR

 

Flash Manufacturing PMI

   

52.3

52.3

 
   

EUR

 

Flash Services PMI

   

54.2

54.1

 
 

All Day

EUR

 

Eurogroup Meetings

         
 

10:00am ET

USD

 

Existing Home Sales

   

5.39M

5.55M

 
 

Tentative

USD

 

Fed Announcement

         

Tue Nov 24

4:00am ET

EUR

 

German Ifo Business Climate

   

108.3

108.2

 
 

8:30am ET

USD

 

Prelim GDP q/q

   

2.0%

1.5%

 
   

USD

 

Goods Trade Balance

   

-61.8B

-58.6B

 
 

10:00am ET

USD

 

CB Consumer Confidence

   

99.3

97.6

 

Wed Nov 25

8:30am ET

USD

 

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

   

0.5%

-0.3%

 
   

USD

 

Unemployment Claims

   

273K

271K

 
   

USD

 

Core PCE Price Index m/m

   

0.1%

0.1%

 
   

USD

 

Durable Goods Orders m/m

   

1.6%

-1.2%

 
   

USD

 

Personal Spending m/m

   

0.3%

0.1%

 
 

10:00am ET

USD

 

New Home Sales

   

500K

468K

 
   

USD

 

Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

   

93.2

93.1

 
 

10:30am ET

USD

 

Crude Oil Inventories

     

0.3M

 

Thu Nov 26

4:00am ET

EUR

 

M3 Money Supply y/y

   

4.9%

4.9%

 

Fri Nov 27

3:00am ET

EUR

 

Spanish Flash CPI y/y

   

-0.5%

-0.7%

 

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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