EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 26 – 30, 2012, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The EUR/USD climbed throughout the week, moving from 1.2759 on Monday to close the week at 1.2974 heading for the 1.30 price level.  It was disappointing week for risky assets sets the stage for further US Dollar strength—especially as we see uncertainty surrounding the so-called Fiscal Cliff negotiations and renewed arm conflict in Israel and the Gaza Strip weigh on sentiment. A holiday-shortened trading week ahead offers relatively little in terms of foreseeable economic event risk, but that doesn’t rule out Dollar volatility through the days ahead. We’ll pay particularly close attention to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s Tuesday address at the Economic Club in New York—that which will give further clues on the Fed’s next steps for monetary policy.

In the Eurozone, not much really happened with Greece put off until Monday but some positive eco releases, including EU and individual PMI reported above forecast followed by German GDP and iFo all reporting well which helped sentiment change. Rumors that a Greek solution had been agreed up before the Monday meeting helped buoy the euro. Next up with be Spain and the activation of the OMT. The level of concern surrounding Spain’s financial progress / decline will correlate directly with the confidence in Greece. If traders read the events pertaining to the latter’s financial aid poorly, Spain’s refusal to tap support will be judged an explicit risk to the broader region. Spain has two bond auctions, redemption and the release of the Bank of Spain’s bad loan data on tap. All noteworthy, but the real concern will always be when (not ‘if’ as the market already expects it) the Eurozone’s fourth largest economy will tap the rescue program.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of November 19 –23, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 1.4940 USD on May 04, 2011.

Average: 1.3434 USD over this period.

Lowest: 1.1877 USD on Jun 07, 2010.

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Nov 26 10:30 Germany 

Nov 26 11:00 Belgium 

Nov 26 16:30 Italy  

Nov 27 01:30 Japan 

Nov 27 09:30 Holland 

Nov 27 09:30 Spain 

Nov 27 10:10 Italy  

Nov 27 15:30 UK 

Nov 27 18:00 US 

Nov 28 10:10 Italy  

Nov 28 10:10 Sweden 

Nov 28 10:30 Germany 

Nov 28 18:00 US 

Nov 29 10:10 Italy  

Nov 29 18:00 US