GBP/USD Price Forecast: Any Risk Aversion to Deliver Sub-$1.20

For the Pound, it is a quiet start to the week on the UK economic calendar. There are no stats from the UK to provide the GBP/USD pair with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of market risk appetite for the day.

While it is a quiet start to the week, it’s a busy week ahead, with Bank of England MPC member speeches and economic indicators to draw plenty of interest.

GBP/USD Price Action

At the time of writing, the Pound was up 0.10% to $1.21051.

This morning, the Pound rose to an early high of $1.2129 before falling to a low of $1.20841.

The Pound left the Major Support and Resistance Levels untested early on.

Technical Indicators

The Pound will need to avoid the $1.2082 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1.2189.

A shift in market risk appetite would support a breakout from the Friday high of $1.21784.

An extended rally would test resistance at $1.2250 but likely fall short of the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1.2285. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1.2488.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.1986 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, the Pound should steer clear of sub-$1.1950 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1.1880. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1.1677.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it is a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, the Pound sat below 50-day EMA, currently at $1.21805. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA. The 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA: GBP/USD negative.

A move through the 50-day EMA would support a breakout from R1 to bring $1.22 into play.

However, following the Wednesday GBP/USD fall through the 50-day EMA to sub-$1.2050, support levels will remain in play before a return to $1.2150.

The US Session

There are no US economic indicators to consider, with the US markets closed for Independence Day.