GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 10, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Aug 7, 2015, 10:27 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD had very little reaction to the better than expected Trade Balance print today. The pound is trading flat at

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 10, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD had very little reaction to the better than expected Trade Balance print today. The pound is trading flat at 1.5513. The U.K.’s trade balance fell less-than-expected last month, official data showed on Friday.

In a report, National Statistics said that U.K. trade balance fell to a seasonally adjusted -9.18B, from -8.42B in the preceding month whose figure was revised down from -8.00B.

The Bank of England pointed to a possible rise in interest rates early next year after just one of its top policymakers backed an immediate move, as it forecast that the strength of sterling meant inflation would only pick up slowly.

The pound fell sharply and investors briefly pushed back their bets on a first rate hike until June next year, before BoE Governor Mark Carney said the Bank was getting closer to beginning to undo its stimulus for Britain’s economy.

“The likely timing of the first Bank Rate increase is drawing closer,” he told reporters.

“However the exact timing of the first move cannot be predicted in advance … in short, it will be data-dependent,” he said after the BoE for the first time published its quarterly economic forecasts and details of its latest policy discussions on the same day.

The BoE slashed interest rates to 0.5 percent in the depths of the financial crisis in 2009 and has kept them there since.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	Home Loans (MoM) (Jun)	4.4%	5.0%	-7.3%
AUD	RBA Monetary Policy Statement
CHF	Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Jul)	3.1%	3.1%	3.1%
CHF	Unemployment Rate (Jul)	3.3%	3.3%	3.3%
EUR	German Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.4%	0.3%	0.2%
EUR	German Trade Balance (Jun)	24.0B	21.5B	19.5B
JPY	BoJ Press Conference
GBP	Trade Balance (Jun)		-9.30B	-8.00B
GBP	Trade Balance Non-EU (Jun)		-2.40B	-1.57B

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, August 10, 2015

	Event	Previous
JPY	Eco Watchers Survey: Current (Jul)		51
JPY	Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (Jul)		53.5
USD	Labor Market Conditions Index (Jul)		0.8
NZD	Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM)		0.5%
NZD	Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY)		5%
GBP	BRC Retail Sales Monitor – All (YoY)		1.8%