GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 11, 2015 – Forecast

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Updated: Aug 10, 2015, 09:56 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD gained a few points to trade at 1.5496 as the greenback eased a bit on a quiet day. Traders are looking towards

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 11, 2015 - Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD gained a few points to trade at 1.5496 as the greenback eased a bit on a quiet day. Traders are looking towards US data late in the session and a speech on monetary policy from a leading Fed member. On Super Thursday the Bank of England had little to say as investors were taken by surprise earlier when the bank said only one of its nine policymakers had voted for a rate rise at their August meeting. Most economists taking part in a Reuter’s poll had expected two or even three members of the monetary policy committee to vote for a rise. The surprise 8-1 result prompted markets to push out their bets on a first rate increase.

“The depreciation of the euro against sterling and the dollar is providing support to firms exporting to the UK and US, while the recovery in the euro area — Ireland’s other main trading partner — is gaining ground,” she said. There remains a wide range of forecasts on exactly when the Bank of England will raise rates.

Its decision has important consequences for the euro exchange rate. The bank pointed to a possible increase in interest rates early next year, after only one of its top policymakers backed an immediate move. It also forecast a slow pick-up in inflation thanks to a strong pound.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

This weekend and today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
CNY	Exports (YoY) (Jul)	-8.3%	-1.0%	2.8%
CNY	Imports (YoY) (Jul)	-8.1%	-8.0%	-6.1%
CNY	Trade Balance (Jul)	43.03B	53.25B	46.54B
CNY	CPI (MoM) (Jul)	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%
CNY	CPI (YoY) (Jul)	1.6%	1.5%	1.4%
CNY	PPI (YoY) (Jul)	-5.4%	-5.0%	-4.8%
JPY	Adjusted Current Account	1.30T	1.41T	1.64T
JPY	Current Account n.s.a. (Jun)	0.559T	0.774T	1.881T
JPY	BoJ Monthly Report

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	NAB Business Confidence (Jul)			10
EUR	German ZEW Current Conditions		64.4	63.9
EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment		32.0	29.7
CAD	Housing Starts (Jul)		195.0K	202.8K
USD	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2)		1.6%	-3.1%
USD	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2)		0.2%	6.7%
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-2.400M