GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 14, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Aug 13, 2015, 12:24 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD is flat with little data expected today. The GBP is holding at 156.15 near the top of its recent trading range.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 14, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is flat with little data expected today. The GBP is holding at 156.15 near the top of its recent trading range. The US dollar continues to recover from Wednesday’s rout as traders stop their panic reactions to Chinese currency moves.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said on Thursday that its gauge for U.K. house prices rose to a one-year high of 44 in July from 40. An index of price expectations in London over the next three months rose to 48, the highest since March last year. A similar gauge for the U.K. held at 41.

In China, central bank Assistant Governor Zhang Xiaochuan said on Thursday that the yuan’s adjustment after the fixed method was changed is “basically already completed,” easing concern of further moves to push the yuan lower. Verbal support from the central bank helped to stem the currency’s worst loss in two decades. Focus was now on US retail sales data due later in the day and a strong number could see investors ramp up expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in September. That is likely to help the dollar, traders said.

Some of those rate hike expectations were tempered after China devalued its currency earlier this week and reported weak economic data that sparked fears about global growth and disinflation.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Business NZ PMI (Jul)	53.5		55.2
GBP	RICS House Price Balance (Jul)	44%	42%	40%
AUD	RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks
EUR	German CPI (MoM) (Jul)	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
EUR	Spanish CPI (YoY) (Jul)	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
EUR	Spanish HICP (YoY) (Jul)	0.0%	-0.1%	-0.1%
CHF	PPI (MoM) (Jul)	-0.3%	-0.2%	-0.1%
EUR	Account of Monetary Policy Meeting

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, August 14, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Core Retail Sales (QoQ)		0.7%	2.9%
EUR	German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)		0.5%	0.3%
EUR	Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)		1.0%	1.0%
EUR	CPI (MoM) (Jul)		-0.6%	0.0%
EUR	GDP (QoQ) (Q2)		0.4%	0.4%
USD	PPI (MoM) (Jul)		0.1%	0.4%
CAD	Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Jun)		2.1%	0.1%
USD	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul)		0.3%	0.3%
USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug)		93.5	93.1