Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD dipped 56 points today to trade at 1.5347 well of its high this week at 1.57. Economists have said the boost to
The GBP/USD dipped 56 points today to trade at 1.5347 well of its high this week at 1.57. Economists have said the boost to trade might be temporary, because the persistent strength of sterling is making British goods more expensive abroad, while turmoil in Chinese financial markets has increased uncertainty about the global outlook.
Business investment rose 2.9% compared with the first three months of 2015 – the highest figure in a year. Samuel Tombs, senior UK economist at Capital Economics, said the figure “put paid to the idea that uncertainty about the general election would weigh on capital expenditure”.
Household spending increased by 0.7%, but was lower than the 0.9% rise in the first quarter. Weak inflation, low interest rates and a strong pound have helped to keep consumer sentiment buoyant.
The UK economy expanded by 3% last year in its best result since 2006. The Bank of England expects the same momentum to be maintained this year, forecasting 2.8% growth.
“With growth in households’ real incomes set to remain supported by low inflation, building wage growth and strong job creation, we continue to think that the economic recovery will sustain its current pace in the second half of 2015,” Mr Tombs said.
Business investment was also up strongly, growing 2.9 per cent quarter on quarter, in a promising sign for UK growth prospects and productivity. George Buckley, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, said the details were “encouraging” but cautioned that the growth in exports might weaken given global economic uncertainties.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
JPY |
Household Spending (YoY) (Jul) |
-0.2% |
1.3% |
-2.0% |
|
||
JPY |
Household Spending (MoM) (Jul) |
0.6% |
2.2% |
-3.0% |
|
||
JPY |
Jobs/applications ratio (Jul) |
1.21 |
1.19 |
1.19 |
|
||
JPY |
National Core CPI (YoY) (Jul) |
0.0% |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
|
||
JPY |
Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Aug) |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
-0.1% |
|
||
JPY |
Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul) |
1.6% |
1.1% |
0.9% |
|
||
CHF |
GDP (YoY) (Q2) |
1.2% |
0.9% |
1.2% |
|||
CHF |
GDP (QoQ) (Q2) |
0.2% |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
|
||
EUR |
Spanish CPI (YoY) (Aug) |
-0.4% |
-0.1% |
0.1% |
|
||
EUR |
Spanish HICP (YoY) (Aug) |
-0.5% |
-0.2% |
0.0% |
|
||
GBP |
Business Investment (QoQ) (Q2) |
2.9% |
1.7% |
2.0% |
|
||
GBP |
GDP (YoY) (Q2) |
2.6% |
2.6% |
2.6% |
|
||
GBP |
GDP (QoQ) (Q2) |
0.7% |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
||
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) (Aug) |
0.0% |
-0.1% |
0.2% |
|
||
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jul) |
1.2% |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
||
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jul) |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
||
USD |
Goods Trade Balance (Jul) |
-59.12B |
|
-62.26B |
|
||
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) (Jul) |
0.3% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
|||
CAD |
RMPI (MoM) (Jul) |
-5.9% |
-4.0% |
0.2% |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Monday, August 31, 2015
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
||
|
United Kingdom – Summer Bank Holiday |
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NZD |
Building Consents (MoM) (Jul) |
|
|
-4.1% |
|
||
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul) |
|
|
1.1% |
|
||
AUD |
HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Jul) |
|
|
|
|
||
AUD |
Company Gross Operating Profits |
|
|
0.2% |
|
||
AUD |
Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Jul) |
|
|
0.4% |
|
||
CHF |
KOF Leading Indicators (Aug) |
|
|
99.8 |
|
||
EUR |
CPI (YoY) (Aug) |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
||
CAD |
Current Account (Q2) |
|
|
-17.5B |
|
||
USD |
Chicago PMI (Aug) |
|
54.5 |
54.7 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Aug 28 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus
Sep 01 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale
Sep 01 00:00 UK Announces details of 3.5% 2045 Gilt
Sep 02 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Sep 02 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl
Sep 02 11:30 UK Auctions new Jan 2021 Gilt
Sep 03 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones
Sep 03 11:10 France Auctions OATs
Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 3yr note on 08 Sep, 10yr note on 09 Sep
Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 10-year note on 09 Sep