Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD continues to climb well into the 1.62 range and could see an attempt tomorrow at 1.63. The pair is trading at
The GBP/USD continues to climb well into the 1.62 range and could see an attempt tomorrow at 1.63. The pair is trading at 1.6262 adding 57pts today. CPI and PPI year over year both reported above expectations helping to support the pound.
The focus for GBP over the next day now shifts to the outlook for relative monetary policy, as market participants await the MPC minutes release. Voting information is key, given that there has only been one vote for easing since the asset purchase program’s expansion in July. Sterling rose to its highest in more than two and a half months against the dollar after high UK inflation added to expectations the Bank of England will avoid further easing for now.
Traders said sterling was also lifted in thin trade by end-of-year demand to buy the currency from companies looking to hedge and from central banks.
UK annual consumer price inflation unexpectedly remained at 2.7 percent in November after a surprise jump the month before, which is likely to reinforce the central bank’s concerns about price pressures proving persistent. The market consensus had been for inflation to dip to 2.6 percent.
The dollar remains weak as US leaders seem to be making headway in their budget negotiations leaving investors looking for more risk at present.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data December 18, 2012 actual v. forecast
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
Dec. 18 |
|
AUD |
|
|
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INR |
|
|
Indian Interest Rate Decision |
8.00% |
|
8.00% |
|
8.00% |
|
|
|
|
SEK |
|
|
Swedish Interest Rate Decision |
1.00% |
|
1.00% |
|
1.25% |
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Core CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
|
2.7% |
|
2.6% |
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
CPI (YoY) |
2.7% |
|
2.6% |
|
2.7% |
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
PPI Input (MoM) |
0.1% |
|
-0.1% |
|
0.1% |
||
|
|
GBP |
|
|
CPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.5% |
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
PPI Input (YoY) |
-0.3% |
|
-0.5% |
|
0.1% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
Dec. 19 |
09:00 |
EUR |
102.0 |
101.4 |
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
108.0 |
108.1 |
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
96.3 |
95.2 |
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
25 |
33 |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.875M |
0.868M |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.870M |
0.894M |
|
Dec. 20 |
09:30 |
GBP |
0.3% |
-0.8% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.5% |
0.6% |
|
Dec. 21 |
07:00 |
EUR |
5.9 |
5.9 |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-14.0B |
-20.8B |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Dec 19 18:00 US
Dec 20 10:30 UK
Dec 20 16:30 Italy
Dec 20 18:00 US
Dec 21 16:30 Italy