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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis December 19, 2012, Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD continues to climb well into the 1.62 range and could see an attempt tomorrow at 1.63. The pair is trading at

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis December 19, 2012, Forecast

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis December 19, 2012, Forecast
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis December 19, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD continues to climb well into the 1.62 range and could see an attempt tomorrow at 1.63. The pair is trading at 1.6262 adding 57pts today. CPI and PPI year over year both reported above expectations helping to support the pound.

The focus for GBP over the next day now shifts to the outlook for relative monetary policy, as market participants await the MPC minutes release. Voting information is key, given that there has only been one vote for easing since the asset purchase program’s expansion in July. Sterling rose to its highest in more than two and a half months against the dollar after high UK inflation added to expectations the Bank of England will avoid further easing for now.

Traders said sterling was also lifted in thin trade by end-of-year demand to buy the currency from companies looking to hedge and from central banks.

UK annual consumer price inflation unexpectedly remained at 2.7 percent in November after a surprise jump the month before, which is likely to reinforce the central bank’s concerns about price pressures proving persistent. The market consensus had been for inflation to dip to 2.6 percent.

The dollar remains weak as US leaders seem to be making headway in their budget negotiations leaving investors looking for more risk at present.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 18, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 18

 

AUD

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INR

 

 

Indian Interest Rate Decision 

8.00%

 

8.00% 

 

8.00% 

 

 

 

 

SEK

 

 

Swedish Interest Rate Decision 

1.00%

 

1.00% 

 

1.25% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

 

2.7% 

 

2.6% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

 

2.6% 

 

2.7% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

PPI Input (MoM) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.1% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

PPI Input (YoY) 

-0.3%

 

-0.5% 

 

0.1% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 19

09:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

102.0

101.4

 

09:00

EUR

German Current Assessment 

108.0

108.1

 

09:00

EUR

German Business Expectations 

96.3

95.2

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

25

33

 

13:30

USD

Building Permits 

0.875M

0.868M

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts 

0.870M

0.894M

Dec. 20 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

-0.8%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

1.5%

0.6%

Dec. 21

07:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.9

5.9

 

09:30

GBP

Current Account 

-14.0B

-20.8B

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

1.0%

1.0%

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) 

-0.1%

-0.1%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 19 18:00 US 

Dec 20 10:30 UK 

Dec 20 16:30 Italy  

Dec 20 18:00 US 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

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