GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis December 6, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 00:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD lost a few pips today after Chancellor Osborne delivered autumn statement today followed by a revision of GDP

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis December 6, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD lost a few pips today after Chancellor Osborne delivered autumn statement today followed by a revision of GDP forecast. Services PMI printed below forecast also. The release presents a medium term risk for GBP given its impact on the UK’s credit rating, specifically from Moody’s (Aaa / negative) given the rating agency’s November 14th announcement that they would revisit the UK’s rating and outlook in the first few months of 2013. The analysis will consider today’s Autumn Statement, specifically the outlook for growth in light of its impact on sovereign debt metrics. Tomorrows Bank of England meet is of crucial importance. The pound is trading at 1.6088

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Economic Data December 5, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 05

AUD

GDP (QoQ)

0.5%

0.6%

AUD

RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks

GBP

Services PMI

50.2

51.1

50.6

EUR

Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction

5.290%

5.517%

EUR

Retail Sales (MoM)

-1.2%

-0.1%

-0.6%

PLN

Polish Interest Rate Decision

4.25%

4.25%

4.50%

RUB

Russian CPI (MoM)

0.3%

0.5%

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

118K

125K

157K

USD

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)

2.9%

2.7%

1.9%

USD

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)

-1.9%

-0.9%

-0.1%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 06	08:15	CHF	CPI (MoM)		0.1%
	09:30	GBP	Trade Balance	-8.8B	-8.4B
	10:00	EUR	GDP (QoQ)	-0.1%	-0.1%
	11:00	EUR	German Factory Orders (MoM)	0.9%	-3.3%
	12:00	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%
	12:00	GBP	BOE QE Total	375B	375B
	12:45	EUR	Interest Rate Decision	0.75%	0.75%
Dec. 07	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.7%	-1.7%
	09:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)	-0.2%	0.1%
	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY)	-0.6%	-2.6%
	11:00	EUR	German Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.5%	-1.8%