GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis February 12, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD gained today to reach 1.5290 adding 36 points as sentiment shifted more positive for the pound.  . Gyrations in the euro and the dollar pushed the pair up and down the lower half of the 1.52 big figures. A good NIESR GDP estimate helped cable higher in the intraday range. The pair closed the session at 1.5254 (from 1.5215 on Monday). Not bad given the strong dollar. Today, there are no important eco data in the UK. So, sterling trading will be at the mercy of global factors. Uncertainty on Greece might keep the euro slightly in the defensive. Sterling traded reasonably strong of late.

The Bank of England’s trade-weighted sterling index rose above 90 for the first time since 2008. Good for UK tourists but not great for foreign currency-earning UK-listed corporates — one reason why the FTSE 100 is still to surpass its record highs of late 1999.

Just like with the US dollar, the pound is being supported by interest rate differentials reflecting a better economic performance than European peers and expectations for coming monetary tightening in the UK. The BoE’s base rate is 0.50 per cent and “short sterling futures” suggest this may rise to 0.73 per cent by September.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

EU Meeting Set To Begin Discussion On Greece

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, February 12^th

Government Bond Auctions

Date                   Country

Feb 12                Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Feb 12                Ireland Bond auction

Feb 12                US Announces 30-yr TIPS auction on Feb 19

Feb 12                US Usd 16bn 30-yr Bonds

Feb 16                Belgium Auctions OLOs

Feb 18                Germany Eur 4bn Feb 2025 Bund

Feb 18                Sweden Details bond auction on 25 Feb

Feb 19                Spain Auctions

Feb 19                France Auctions BTANs

Feb 19                France Auctions

Feb 19                Italy Announces details

Feb 19                US Announces 2-yr FRN, plus 2/5/7 Notes

Feb 19                US Auctions 30-yr TIPS