Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD dipped 37 points to 1.52 as the US dollar rallied on safe haven traders and Europe and the UK are going through
The GBP/USD dipped 37 points to 1.52 as the US dollar rallied on safe haven traders and Europe and the UK are going through massive terrorist worries. The pound had been pegged back on Friday by comments from a senior Bank of England policymaker who said an interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve would not automatically lead to a response in Britain.
That bent towards relatively looser policy from the Bank, allied to the concerns around Britain’s huge current account deficit and the planned referendum on EU membership, have turned some major banks against sterling in the past month. Some said this week’s data readouts would undermine it further.
“With headline inflation likely to remain negative and retail sales falling on the back of last month’s stunning print, we expect the data-sensitive GBP to underperform this week,” analysts from Dutch bank ING said in a morning note.
Inflation numbers are due on Tuesday and forecast by Reuters polling to show a 0.1 percent fall in prices in annual terms. Retail sales are due on Thursday, forecast to rise 4.2 percent year on year.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
NZD |
Core Retail Sales (QoQ) |
1.0% |
1.4% |
0.0% |
|||
NZD |
Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q3) |
1.6% |
1.3% |
0.1% |
|
||
JPY |
GDP (YoY) (Q3) |
-0.8% |
-0.2% |
-1.2% |
|
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JPY |
GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
-0.2% |
-0.1% |
-0.3% |
|
||
EUR |
Core CPI (YoY) (Oct) |
1.1% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
||
EUR |
CPI (MoM) (Oct) |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
||
EUR |
CPI (YoY) (Oct) |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
||
EUR |
ECB President Draghi Speaks |
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|
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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
||
GBP |
CPI (MoM) (Oct) |
|
0.1% |
-0.1% |
||
GBP |
CPI (YoY) (Oct) |
|
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
||
GBP |
PPI Input (MoM) (Oct) |
|
0.2% |
0.6% |
||
EUR |
German ZEW Current Conditions |
|
55.5 |
55.2 |
||
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
|
6.0 |
1.9 |
||
USD |
Core CPI (YoY) (Oct) |
|
1.9% |
1.9% |
||
USD |
Core CPI (MoM) (Oct) |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
||
USD |
CPI (MoM) (Oct) |
|
0.2% |
-0.2% |
||
USD |
Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) |
|
0.1% |
-0.2% |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Nov 18 11:30 Germany New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz
Nov 18 11:30 UK 2% 2025 Gilt auction
Nov 18 11:30 Portugal Eur 1-1.25bn; bond auction
Nov 18 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 25 Nov
Nov 18 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 24 Nov
Nov 19 10:30 Spain 0.25% Apr 2018 Bono, 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono, 5.4% Jan 2023
Nov 19 10:50 France Eur 7-8bn; 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 0.25% Nov 2020 OAT, 2.25%
Nov 19 11:50 France Eur 1-1.5bn; 0.25% Jul 2024, 1.85% Jul 2027, 3.15% Jul 2032
Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction
Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov
Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs
Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction
Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov
Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL
Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction
Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei
Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund
Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction
Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction
Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus