GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis November 24, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD dipped 31 points to trade at 1.5156 after the US dollar rallied ahead of the holiday weekend. Speculation that the Fed will lift interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade this year has intensified since the release of strong US jobs data earlier this month. Comments from Fed officials have boosted that view. The latest Fed speak has been pretty much uniform – expect a Fed rate hike in December. Recent comments from Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, and San Francisco Fed President John Williams have said that there is a strong case for the Fed to hike interest rates.

Sterling edged down against both the dollar and euro on Monday, with investors eyeing testimony from the heads of the British finance ministry and Bank of England (BoE) later in the week for direction.

The pound had hit a three-month high last week against the euro and a trade-weighted basket of currencies as expectations grew that policy would be eased still further in the euro zone, Britain’s main trading partner.  By contrast, the next policy move from the BoE is expected to be an interest rate rise. But markets have pushed out to the end of 2016 their bets on when that hike will come, roughly a year later than expectations of a December rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus