Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD dipped 15 points ahead of the autumn statement from the government. The US dollar weakened a bit but remains
The GBP/USD dipped 15 points ahead of the autumn statement from the government. The US dollar weakened a bit but remains near the top of its trading range. The pound is trading at 1.5109. The pound is down from last week’s close. No event risk today leaving the sterling to trade on broader movements. Main event this week will come when Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will present the inflation report this morning. This event risk will be interesting to the market because the recent fundamentals that release were sluggish.
The attention will be on Bank of England Governor Mark Carney who is expected to testify to lawmakers later in the day. Earlier this month, he cooled expectations that the BoE will follow the Federal Reserve soon in raising rates, and he is expected to reiterate that, flagging external risks to growth.
The dollar index was down 0.15 percent at 99.63, having hit a 8-month high of 100.00 struck on Monday. Volumes are likely to stay low given the Thanksgiving holidays in the United States.
Sterling’s fall could be attributed to a robust dollar, as per BNP Paribas currency strategist Sam Lynton-Brown and over the medium term the bank’s confidence in the sterling remained unwavering, he said as per the report.
“We think the market is underpricing the likely timing and pace of Bank of England hikes. The market only prices the first BoE hike by Q1 2017. Our economist still thinks they go in May,” he stated as mentioned in the report.
Market bets have been shoved out to the end of 2016 depending upon the time of the next move on policy by BoE, which is mostly anticipated to be to result in an interest rate hike.
Expectations that the Britain could vote to leave the European Union next year persist in the market which has augmented the risk of volatility closer to the vote, and the referendum could also infuse complications in the time of the rate hike, as stated by asset managers in a Reuter’s summit.
The chancellor George Osborne will stand in the House of Commons to deliver the third package of fiscal policy measures this year.
The majority of attention is focused on cuts to spending and how this is balanced with demands for greater funding in some critical areas – as well as pledges to soften savings in others.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
EUR |
German GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
||
EUR |
German GDP (YoY) (Q3) |
1.8% |
1.8% |
1.8% |
|
||
EUR |
ECB’s Costa Speaks |
|
|
|
|
||
EUR |
German Business Expectations (Nov) |
104.7 |
104.0 |
103.8 |
|
||
EUR |
German Current Assessment (Nov) |
113.4 |
112.4 |
112.6 |
|
||
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate Index |
109.0 |
108.2 |
108.2 |
|
||
AUD |
RBA Governor Stevens Speaks |
|
|
|
|
||
USD |
GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
2.1% |
1.5% |
|
||
USD |
GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
||
USD |
Goods Trade Balance (Oct) |
|
-61.80B |
-58.63B |
|
||
USD |
S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (YoY) |
|
5.1% |
5.1% |
|
||
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence (Nov) |
|
99.5 |
97.6 |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Tuesday, November 25, 2015
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
USD |
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock |
|
|
-0.482M |
|
||
JPY |
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
|
|
|
|
||
AUD |
Construction Work Done (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
-2.1% |
1.6% |
|
||
GBP |
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
|
45.5K |
44.5K |
|
||
AUD |
RBA Assist Gov. Debelle Speaks |
|
|
|
|
||
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
|
0.3% |
-0.3% |
|
||
USD |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct) |
|
1.5% |
-1.2% |
|
||
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
270K |
271K |
|
||
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) (Oct) |
|
0.3% |
0.1% |
|
||
USD |
Services PMI (Nov) |
|
55.0 |
54.8 |
|
||
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov) |
|
93.1 |
93.1 |
|
||
USD |
New Home Sales (Oct) |
|
500K |
468K |
|
||
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
|
|
0.252M |
|
||
USD |
Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count |
|
|
564 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov
Nov 24 11:00 Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL
Nov 24 19:00 US 13bn 5-year note
Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Sek 4bn 1% Nov 2026 bond
Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei
Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund
Nov 25 17:30 US Usd 35bn 2-year FRN
Nov 25 19:00 US Usd 29bn 7-year note
Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Sek 5bn 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange
Nov 27 11:03 Sweden 1.5% Nov 2023 bond exchange, 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange
Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs
Nov 27 N/A Spain Announces details of 03 Dec
Nov 30 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction
Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec
Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions
Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs
Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction
Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction