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Barry Norman
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 14, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD recovered 32 points to trade at 1.6106 today adding 0.20% as the US dollar eased on a day with little economic data. Attention in the UK was on comments from Bank of England Governor Carney. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated that the British economy is on track to outpace every other country within the Group of Seven (G7) developed nations – a pocket of positivity after recent weakening data.  Bankers’ behavior still needs to change following the financial crisis, Bank of England governor Mark Carney has warned. He said that top executives had “got away without sanction”.

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“Maybe they were not at the best tables in society after that, but they’re still at the best golf courses. That has to change,” he said. Mr Carney was speaking at the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting in Washington. The governor’s warning comes amid a radical reshape of the industry aimed at limiting the impact of any future bank collapses.

Banks will have to ensure retail customers’ deposits are protected and kept separate from their investment arms by the start of 2019.

There has been intense speculation over when the Bank will start to raise rates again.

Markets are expecting an increase sometime in the new year, although some commentators think it could be later this year as the Bank may not want to raise rates close to a general election, scheduled for May 2015.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

Holiday

Japan – Health-Sports Day

 

 

Holiday

Canada – Thanksgiving Day

 

  CNY

 

Exports (YoY) (Sep)

15.3%

11.8%

9.4%

 

 

  CNY

 

Imports (YoY) (Sep)

7.0%

-2.7%

-2.4%

 

 

  CNY

 

Trade Balance (Sep)

31.00B

41.00B

49.83B

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

RBA Asst Gov. Debelle

 

 

 

 

 

  CNY

New Loans

 

750B

703B

 

 

  EUR

French CPI

 

-0.3%

0.4%

 

 

  EUR

French HICP

 

-0.3%

0.5%

 

 

  EUR

Spanish CPI

 

0.2%

0.2%

 

 

  GBP

CPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.2%

0.4%

 

 

  GBP

CPI (YoY) (Sep)

 

1.4%

1.5%

 

 

  GBP

PPI Input (MoM) (Sep)

 

-0.4%

-0.6%

 

 

  EUR

Italian CPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

-0.3%

-0.3%

 

 

  EUR

Industrial Production

 

-1.6%

1.0%

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 14 08:30 Spain 6 & 12M T-bill auction

Oct 14 09:30 Belgium 3 & 12M T-bill auction (Jan & Oct 2015)

Oct 15 09:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 15 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Sep 2016 Schatz auction

Oct 16 08:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction

Oct 16 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt

Oct 16 15:00 US Announces details of 30Y TIPS auction on Oct 23

 

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