GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 21, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD gained 30 points to trade at 1.6123 after Rightmove House Price indexes climbed. The US dollar remains flat ahead of the day’s data releases. The pound gained just over 0.1 percent against the dollar. Bank of England chief economist Andrew Haldane said financial markets may be right to bet that the first interest rate hike since 2007 would come in the middle of next year. He also said he was in favor of keeping rates low for longer, given the uncertainties surrounding UK and global economic growth.

Minutes from the BoE’s Oct. 9 meeting, due out on Wednesday, will be watched for more of that dovish tone. Talk among analysts that another member of the nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee might have swung to vote for higher rates have largely evaporated. Two members had backed a rate rise at the previous meeting in September.

Jose Manuel Barroso observed that a ‘Brexit’ (British exit) from the European Union would leave the UK with ‘zero influence’ on the global stage. With the Pound still reeling from last week’s lowly domestic inflation data, this could be a testing week for those holding Sterling-denominated assets.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 21 10:30 Spain 3 & 9M T-bill auction

Oct 21 11:00 Finland Maximum Eur 1bn 2.75% Jul 2028 bonds

Oct 21 11:00 Norway Nok 3bn 3% Mar 2024 bonds

Oct 21 11:00 UK GBP 3bn 2.75% Sep 2024 Gilt

Oct 21 12:30 ESM Up to Eur 1bn 6M T-bills (Apr 2015)

Oct 22 11:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn 2.5% Aug 2046 Bund

Oct 23 11:03 Sweden Sek 1bn 0.5% Jun 2017 I/L bond

Oct 23 17:00 US Announces 2/5/7Y Note & 2Y FRN auctions on Oct 28/29/30

Oct 23 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPei/CTZ auctions on Oct 28

Oct 23 19:00 US USD 7bn 30Y TIPS auction

Oct 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 29

Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction

Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30

Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions

Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction

Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction

Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction

Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction

Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction