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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 24, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 02:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD fell by 38 points to trade at 1.6012 after BBA mortgages and retail sales fell below expectations.  Sterling

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 24, 2014 Forecast

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 24, 2014 Forecast
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 24, 2014 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD fell by 38 points to trade at 1.6012 after BBA mortgages and retail sales fell below expectations.  Sterling fell sharply against the dollar on Wednesday morning with the minutes from Bank of England’s (BoE) latest rate-setting meeting showing that members remain split on the future path of interest rates in the U.K. Two members of the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) again voted for an interest rate hike in October. Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty were the two to vote for the move, with the economists widely viewed as the most hawkish members at the central bank.

Mark Carney’s majority at the Bank of England hardened its view on interest rates this month, saying increased risks from the euro area meant it was not yet time to begin raising borrowing costs.

Minutes of the monetary policy committee’s October meeting, published yesterday, showed officials voted seven to two to keep the benchmark rate at a record low 0.5 per cent.

UK retail sales fell in September, adding to signs that the economic recovery may be losing steam. The Office for National Statistics said that sales volumes fell 0.3% on the month to 2.7%. It was more than many economists expected and the weakest performance since January. Mild weather in September put shoppers off buying winter clothes, but sales were weaker in other sectors too.

Retail sales volumes fell marking the 18th consecutive month of year-on-year growth, official figures show.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

CPI (QoQ) (Q2)

0.3%

0.5%

0.3%

 

 

  AUD

 

Business Confidence

6

 

6

 

 

  CNY

 

HSBC Mfg.  PMI 

50.4

50.3

50.2

 

 

  EUR

 

French Mfg. PMI 

47.3

48.5

48.8

 

 

  EUR

 

French Services PMI   

48.1

48.2

48.4

 

 

  EUR

 

German Mfg. PMI 

51.8

49.5

49.9

 

 

  EUR

 

German Services PMI

54.8

55.0

55.7

 

 

  EUR

 

Manufacturing PMI

50.7

49.9

50.3

 

 

  EUR

 

Services PMI (Oct)  

52.4

52.0

52.4

 

 

  GBP

 

Mortgage Approvals

39.3K

41.5K

41.4K

 

 

  GBP

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM)

-0.3%

-0.2%

0.3%

 

 

  GBP

 

Core Retail Sales (YoY)

3.1%

3.4%

4.4%

 

 

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM)

-0.3%

-0.1%

0.4%

 

 

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep)

2.7%

2.8%

3.7%

 

 

  GBP

 

CBI Industrial Trends

 

-4

-4

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

282K

264K

 

 

GBPUSD(15 minutes)20141023124521

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (MoM)

 

-700M

-472M

 

 

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (YoY)

 

1,510M

2,020M

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)  

 

0.7%

0.9%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (YoY) (Q3)  

 

3.0%

3.2%

 

 

  USD

 

New Home Sales (Sep)

 

470K

504K

 

 

  USD

 

New Home Sales (MoM)

 

-5.8%

18.0%

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 23 11:03 Sweden Sek 1bn 0.5% Jun 2017 I/L bond

Oct 23 17:00 US Announces 2/5/7Y Note & 2Y FRN auctions on Oct 28/29/30

Oct 23 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPei/CTZ auctions on Oct 28

Oct 23 19:00 US USD 7bn 30Y TIPS auction

Oct 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 29

Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction

Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30

Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions

Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction

Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction

Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction

Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction

Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction

 

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