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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 29, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 03:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD eased down giving back a bit of yesterday’s gains to trade at 1.6116 as the greenback gained momentum ahead of

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 29, 2014 Forecast

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 29, 2014 Forecast
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 29, 2014 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD eased down giving back a bit of yesterday’s gains to trade at 1.6116 as the greenback gained momentum ahead of the two day Fed meeting starting in a few hours. Sterling trades little changed versus dollar and euro. Late yesterday, BoE deputy governor and MPC member Shafik said she doesn’t see significant evidence of inflationary pressures and has set a high bar for raising rates. She sees mixed data, but looks to wages and unit labour costs as the most important once. Shafik is since summer MPC member and voted always with the majority. Her comments won’t have a major impact on sterling trading. Today, the UK eco calendar is empty.

The dollar was under some slight downward pressure, but moves were insignificant from a technical point of view. It seems that, despite a few interesting news items, investors are largely sidelined waiting the FOMC meeting that starts soon.

Minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting showed MPC members firmly against raising rates now, pointing to weak inflation pressure at home and a slowdown in the euro zone, Britain’s most important export market.  Out of the MPC’s nine members, only Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty have so far voted to raise interest rates from their record low level of 0.5 percent.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep)

2.3%

0.6%

1.2%

 

 

  USD

 

Core Durable Goods

 

0.5%

0.4%

 

 

  USD

 

Durable Goods Orders

 

0.5%

-18.4%

 

 

  USD

 

S&P/CS HPI Composite –

 

5.8%

6.7%

 

 

  USD

 

CB Con. Confidence

 

87.0

86.0

 

 

GBPUSD(60 minutes)20141028131540

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Time

Cur.

Imp.

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Industrial Production

 

2.2%

-1.9%

 

 

  NZD

 

 Business Confidence

 

 

13.4%

 

 

  CAD

 

RMPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

-1.0%

-2.2%

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Statement  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Funds Target Rate

 

0.25%

0.25%

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction

Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction

Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction

Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction

Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction

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