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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – September 1, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Aug 31, 2015, 10:16 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD edged higher ahead of important data this week to trade at 1.5412 with the UK on holiday today.  Traders have

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – September 1, 2015 – Forecast

gbpusd monday bns
Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD edged higher ahead of important data this week to trade at 1.5412 with the UK on holiday today.  Traders have been reviewing comments from the Bank of England as they edge towards a rate increase. Carney said on Saturday a Chinese slowdown could add to pressure pushing down on prices in Britain and risk aversion in global markets could make financial conditions in the country tighter, which would also weigh on inflation.

“These are possibilities, not certainties. Their evolution needs to be monitored, not taken for granted,” he said, before adding that the direct exposure of Britain’s economy to China was relatively modest.

He also said the Bank could “look through” the temporary disinflationary impact on inflation from lower demand in China for commodities but would watch for any longer-lasting impact on Britain from a slowing of the world’s No 2 economy.

“Developments in China are unlikely to change the process of rate increases from limited and gradual to infinitesimal and inert,” Carney said.

The Bank’s main guidance on interest rates has been that when the time comes to raise them, they will go up gradually and to a level lower than before the financial crisis.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

Imp.

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

Holiday

United Kingdom – Summer Bank Holiday

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Aug)  

 

0.1%

0.2%

   

 

gbp usd  mon

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  CNY

 

Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

 

49.7

50.0

 

 

  CNY

 

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

 

 

47.1

 

 

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (Sep)

 

2.00%

2.00%

 

 

  EUR

 

German Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

 

53.2

53.2

 

 

  EUR

 

German Unemployment Change (Aug)

 

-3K

9K

 

 

  GBP

 

Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

 

52.0

 

 

 

  CAD

 

GDP (MoM) (Jun)

 

0.2%

-0.2%

 

 

  USD

 

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

 

52.6

     

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Sep 01 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Sep 01 00:00 UK Announces details of 3.5% 2045 Gilt

Sep 02 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 02 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Sep 02 11:30 UK Auctions new Jan 2021 Gilt

Sep 03 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Sep 03 11:10 France Auctions OATs

Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 3yr note on 08 Sep, 10yr note on 09 Sep

Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 10-year note on 09 Sep

 

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