GBP/USD Fundamental Forecast – September 12, 2016

The GBP/USD added 21 points to move back towards a near term top at 1.3314 after the release of inflation expectations and trade balance numbers.  Overall trade deficit narrowed to 11.764 billion pounds from 12.40 billion pounds as exports outpaced imports, and broadly in line with expectations. The Office for National Statistics, however, said it was too soon to know if the sharp fall in sterling after Britain voted to leave the EU was behind the rise in export volumes.

Analysts said the shrinking trade gap bolstered hopes that external trade would make a positive contribution to overall growth in the third quarter and added to evidence of the economy’s resilience, following the Brexit vote.

The UK marked its first month after the Brexit vote with a huge surge in exports to the European Union, official figures revealed today. Sales to the Continent jumped by £1 billion, or 9.1%, the biggest rise over a single month since October 2010.

The jump in exports outstripped a much smaller rise in exports from the Continent while trade with companies outside the EU dwindled, the Office for National Statistics said.

The UK’s overall trade gap in goods and services fell by more than £1 billion as total sales abroad jumped 3.4%, or £800 million, while imports from overseas fell by £300 million.

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 12, 2016

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 12 11:30 Germany Eur 2bn Mar 2017 Bubill

Sep 12 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Sep 14

Sep 13 11:00 Netherlands Eur 2-3bn 0% Jan 2022 DSL

Sep 13 11:10 Italy Holds bond auction

Sep 14 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 14 11:30 UK 0.125% 2046 I/L Gilt

Sep 14 11:30 Germany Eur 1bn 2.5% Jul 2044 Bund

Sep 15 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

Sep 15 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Sep 15 11:50 France Holds bond auction