GBP/USD Fundamental – November 18, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD was flat at 1.5204 after inflation and producer’s prices came in exactly at forecast. The strength of the US dollar continues to keep the pound under stress. U.K. inflation stayed below zero for a second month in October, extending the weakest run in more than half a century.

The Office for National Statistics said consumer prices declined 0.1 percent from a year earlier, matching the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey. That’s the third negative reading this year, with the latest decline largely driven by food and education costs. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, accelerated to 1.1 percent from 1 percent.

The pound pared its decline against the dollar after the data were published and was little changed at $1.5205.

The Bank of England expects inflation to remain low into 2016 before picking up toward its 2 percent target. BOE Governor Mark Carney has highlighted core inflation as an important measure for policy makers as they weigh when to begin interest rate increases after keeping them at a record low for more than six years.

Consumer-price inflation has been below 1 percent all this year and less than 2 percent since the end of 2013. Britain last saw a sustained period of price declines in 1960, according to a historic series constructed by the statistics office.

In forecasts published this month, the BOE said inflation is likely to reach its goal in late 2017 and accelerate to 2.2 percent a year later. Services inflation, a proxy for domestic price growth, was at 2.2 percent in October.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 18 11:30 Germany New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Nov 18 11:30 UK 2% 2025 Gilt auction

Nov 18 11:30 Portugal Eur 1-1.25bn; bond auction

Nov 18 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 25 Nov

Nov 18 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 24 Nov

Nov 19 10:30 Spain 0.25% Apr 2018 Bono, 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono, 5.4% Jan 2023

Nov 19 10:50 France Eur 7-8bn; 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 0.25% Nov 2020 OAT, 2.25%

Nov 19 11:50 France Eur 1-1.5bn; 0.25% Jul 2024, 1.85% Jul 2027, 3.15% Jul 2032

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus