GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 24-28, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The GBP/USD broke above 1.63 mid-week, as traders looked for higher risk assets as the US dollar weakened as

GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 24-28, 2012, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The GBP/USD broke above 1.63 mid-week, as traders looked for higher risk assets as the US dollar weakened as negotiations in the US make headways. By the end of the week with strong eco data in housing, manufacturing and GDP traders pushed the riskier assets to recent highs. After Plan B collapsed with House Speaker dismissing congress for the holiday’s traders ran for safety as the pound tumbled.

The British Pound set a new 3-month high against the US Dollar following the release of the BoE minutes, which said that the vote to not raise asset purchases was 8-1. The yearly GBPUSD high currently sits at 1.63009.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Dec 21, 2012	1.6169	1.6272	1.6274	1.6153	-0.63%
Dec 20, 2012	1.6272	1.6251	1.6296	1.6245	0.13%
Dec 19, 2012	1.6251	1.6251	1.6306	1.6240	0.00%
Dec 18, 2012	1.6251	1.6204	1.6269	1.6196	0.29%
Dec 17, 2012	1.6204	1.6174	1.6216	1.6158	0.19%

Traders said US and Middle East investors bought sterling and sold the dollar in early trade. The dollar was under pressure as investors sold the greenback and bought assets and currencies linked to growth on expectations that US lawmakers will strike a deal on the budget.

The US ‘fiscal cliff’, a combination of tax rises and spending cuts due to kick-in at the beginning of 2013 has kept the dollar broadly weaker against the euro and the pound in recent sessions.

I would like to take this time to express my best wishes to all of my readers during this holiday season and extend the best hopes for profitable trading in 2013.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of December 17-21 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 17	00:01	GBP	Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)	-3.3%		-2.6%
	13:30	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-8.1	-1.0	-5.2
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions	1.3B	25.0B	3.2B
Dec. 18	09:30	GBP	Core CPI (YoY)	2.6%	2.7%	2.6%
	09:30	GBP	CPI (YoY)	2.7%	2.6%	2.7%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	0.1%	-0.1%	0.1%
	09:30	GBP	CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.2%	0.5%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (YoY)	-0.3%	-0.5%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	Current Account	-107.5B	-103.4B	-118.1B
Dec. 19	09:00	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate Index	102.4	102.0	101.4
	09:00	EUR	German Current Assessment	107.1	108.0	108.1
	09:00	EUR	German Business Expectations	97.9	96.3	95.2
	11:00	GBP	CBI Distributive Trades Survey	19	25	33
	13:30	USD	Building Permits	0.899M	0.875M	0.868M
	13:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.861M	0.873M	0.888M
Dec. 20	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.0%	0.3%	-0.7%
	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (YoY)	0.9%	1.5%	0.8%
	13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	361K	357K	344K
	13:30	USD	GDP (QoQ)	3.1%	2.8%	2.7%
	13:30	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3225K	3199K	3213K
	15:00	USD	Existing Home Sales	5.04M	4.87M	4.76M
	15:00	USD	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index	8.1	-3.0	-10.7
Dec. 21	07:00	EUR	GfK German Consumer Climate	5.6	5.9	5.8
	09:30	GBP	Business Investment (QoQ)	3.8%	3.5%	3.7%
	09:30	GBP	Current Account	-12.8B	-14.0B	-17.4B
	09:30	GBP	GDP (QoQ)	0.9%	1.0%	1.0%
	09:30	GBP	GDP (YoY)	0.0%	-0.1%	-0.1%
	13:30	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	1.6%	-0.2%	1.9%
	13:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM)	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	0.7%	0.2%	1.1%
	13:30	USD	Personal Spending (MoM)	0.4%	0.3%	-0.1%
	14:55	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	72.9	74.7	74.5