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GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 21 – 25, 2014 Forecast
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The GBP/USD ended the week on a weak note at 1.7071 even though data was stronger for the pound this week. The move
The GBP/USD ended the week on a weak note at 1.7071 even though data was stronger for the pound this week. The move away from currencies and indications that the Bank of England would continue to hold fire allowed the currency to fall. Investors will look for clues to the timing of any move in minutes of the Bank of England’s most recent policy meeting, which are due for release next week. Some analysts believe the July meeting could be the last at which the decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5 percent is unanimous.
“Some monetary policy committee (MPC) members have signaled the decision is becoming more finely balanced,” RBC Capital said in a note. “By the time the August Inflation Report projections are presented at the next MPC meeting, news of another quarter of above-trend growth could provide the trigger for at least one vote to tighten policy.”
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Jul 18, 2014 |
1.7071 |
1.7092 |
1.7118 |
1.7037 |
-0.12% |
|
Jul 17, 2014 |
1.7092 |
1.7139 |
1.7144 |
1.7084 |
-0.27% |
|
Jul 16, 2014 |
1.7139 |
1.7142 |
1.7151 |
1.7116 |
-0.02% |
|
Jul 15, 2014 |
1.7143 |
1.7088 |
1.7192 |
1.7060 |
0.32% |
|
Jul 14, 2014 |
1.7088 |
1.7122 |
1.7144 |
1.7070 |
-0.20% |
Concerns about tensions between Russia and the West after a Malaysian passenger plane was shot down over eastern Ukraine and jitters about Israel’s ground offensive in Gaza, which have hit risk assets since Thursday, had little impact on the pound.
Traders expect the Bank of England to tighten monetary policy this year or early next, while the European Central Bank is set to keep policy loose and perhaps resort to asset purchases to avert the threat of disinflation in the euro zone.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Historical: From 2011 to Present
Highest: 1.7192 USD on Jul 15, 2014
Average: 1.5764 USD over this period
Lowest: 1.4832 USD on Mar 12, 2013
Major Economic Events for the week of July 14-18 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul. 14 |
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-1.1% |
-1.2% |
0.7% |
|
Jul. 15 |
CNY |
Chinese New Loans |
1080B |
915B |
871B |
|
|
GBP |
PPI Input (MoM) |
-0.8% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
|
GBP |
CPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
|
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
27.1 |
28.0 |
29.8 |
|
|
EUR |
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
61.8 |
62.3 |
58.4 |
|
|
USD |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
|
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.6% |
0.5% |
|
|
USD |
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index |
25.60 |
17.00 |
19.28 |
|
|
USD |
Business Inventories (MoM) |
0.5% |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
Jul. 16 |
CNY |
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) |
17.3% |
17.2% |
17.2% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese GDP (YoY) |
7.5% |
7.4% |
7.4% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) |
9.2% |
9.0% |
8.8% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese GDP (QoQ) |
2.0% |
1.8% |
1.4% |
|
|
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
-36.3K |
-27.0K |
-32.8K |
|
|
GBP |
Unemployment Rate |
6.5% |
6.5% |
6.6% |
|
|
EUR |
German 10-Year Bund Auction |
1.200% |
1.390% |
|
|
|
USD |
PPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
|
USD |
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions |
19.4B |
27.4B |
-41.2B |
|
|
USD |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
Jul. 17 |
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
0.5% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
|
USD |
Building Permits |
0.963M |
1.040M |
0.991M |
|
|
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.893M |
1.018M |
0.985M |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
302K |
310K |
305K |
|
|
USD |
Building Permits (MoM) |
-4.2% |
4.2% |
-6.4% |
|
|
USD |
Housing Starts (MoM) |
-9.3% |
0.9% |
-7.3% |
|
|
USD |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
23.9 |
16.0 |
17.8 |
|
Jul. 18 |
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
81.3 |
83.0 |
82.5 |
|
|
USD |
Michigan Consumer Expectations |
71.1 |
74.0 |
73.5 |
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP and the USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul. 21 |
EUR |
-0.2% |
||
|
Jul. 22 |
GBP |
8 |
11 |
|
|
|
USD |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
USD |
4.95M |
4.89M |
|
|
|
USD |
1.2% |
4.9% |
|
|
Jul. 23 |
GBP |
11 |
||
|
Jul. 24 |
CNY |
50.7 |
||
|
|
EUR |
48.0 |
48.2 |
|
|
|
EUR |
48.3 |
48.2 |
|
|
|
EUR |
52.0 |
52.0 |
|
|
|
EUR |
54.5 |
54.6 |
|
|
|
EUR |
51.8 |
51.8 |
|
|
|
EUR |
52.8 |
52.8 |
|
|
|
GBP |
0.3% |
-0.5% |
|
|
|
GBP |
3.9% |
3.9% |
|
|
|
USD |
480K |
504K |
|
|
|
USD |
18.6% |
||
|
Jul. 25 |
EUR |
8.9 |
8.9 |
|
|
|
EUR |
109.5 |
109.7 |
|
|
|
EUR |
114.5 |
114.8 |
|
|
|
EUR |
104.5 |
104.8 |
|
|
|
GBP |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
|
|
GBP |
3.1% |
3.0% |
|
|
|
USD |
0.7% |
-0.9% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Jul 22 08:30 Spain
Jul 22 09:30 UK
Jul 22 10:00 Belgium
Jul 23 15:30 Italy
Jul 24 15:00 US
Jul 24 15:30 Italy
Jul 24 17:00 US
Jul 25 15:30 Italy
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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