GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, May 25-29, 2015 – Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: 

The GBP/USD tumbled at the end of the week after the US dollar soared as the pair fell to 1.5498 after Mr. Carney’s comments as well as a bit of lackluster data. The Bank of England accidentally disclosed it’s preparing for the consequences of a British exit from the European Union, The Guardian reported, citing emails it received from the central bank. Jon Cunliffe, the deputy director for financial stability, will lead the examination into the consequences of a so-called Brexit, the report said.

Britain’s public finances started the fiscal year with a narrower-than-expected deficit. The government borrowed £6.8bn in April to cover the gap between expenditure and revenues, down £2.5bn on the previous year, the Office for National Statistics reported on Friday.

Economists welcomed the improvement in the figures but cautioned that as April is the first month of the fiscal year, it was too soon to establish whether a lasting improvement had been made.

Sterling hovered near a seven-year high against a trade weighted basket of currencies as the data reinforced confidence in the UK economic outlook.

Chancellor George Osborne is set to announce more spending cuts at his Budget on July 8. He told the business lobby group the CBI earlier this week that “when it comes to saving money, we all know that the more you can do early, the smoother the ride”.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

 Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest: 1.6618 USD on Aug 19, 2011

Average: 1.5764 USD over this period

Lowest: 1.4832 USD on Mar 12, 2013 

 

Major Economic Events for the week that you should be monitoring:

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 25 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 25 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 28 May

May 26 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 26 09:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

May 26 17:00 US Auctions 2-year notes

May 27 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 27 09:30 Germany Eur 2bn 2.5% Aug 2046 Bund

May 27 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt

May 27 16:00 US Auctions 2-year FRNs

May 27 17:00 US Auctions 5-year notes

May 28 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 28 09:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

May 28 17:00 US Auctions 7-year notes