Gold Forecast – Gold Has Entered its Final Capitulation Phase
- Gold is breaking lower, and miners are collapsing – the final washout has begun. The next few days are crucial.
- The GDX mining ETF bottomed during the last week of September in 2021 and 2022. Will we see a repeat in 2023?
- The current washout could extend into October if prices fail to reverse within the next few trading days. With gold entering its fifth month of lower prices, we see a sustained downtrend unlikely.
Late September Bottoms
The gold miners have been bottoming in late September for the last few years. Prices tend to peak in April or May and bottom just before October. If the cycle holds, GDX could reach a low in the next few trading days. To confirm a bottom, prices would need to close above the most recent gap.
Our Gold Cycle Indicator finished at 62, a fresh low for this cycle. We are near maximum cycle bottoming.
Metals and Mining Price Forecast
Gold Weekly Chart
When you step back and look at the weekly chart of gold, we see a robust bullish setup. The falling wedge pattern is nearly complete, and we expect an upside breakout in the coming months. A rally above $2100 should trigger a strong advance in 2024.
Gold Daily Chart
Gold broke down from the triangle, and the next line of support (for futures) arrives at the March price gap between $1865 & $1875. Dollar weakness would help.
Silver
Silver is holding the trendline. The next few trading days are critical. Closing below $22.00 could trigger a flushout towards $20.00.
Platinum
Platinum closed higher after testing the rounded bottom. Prices must hold above $900 to prevent a deeper breakdown.
GDX
Miners are at support. Prices bottomed in late September the last two years. GDX needs to close above yesterday’s $27.75 price gap to support a low.
GDXJ
Junior gold miners are in the support level between $31.00 and $32.50.
SILJ
Silver juniors are in the support band between $8.00 and $8.50.
NEM
Newmont tagged the lower boundary. I’d like to see a reversal higher to support a bottom. NEM is the only gold miner in the S&P 500 – I see tremendous long-term potential.
Conclusion
The final washout in metals and miners is underway. Overleveraged longs and weak investors are capitulating. The big picture outlook remains bullish, and we see a strong rally after this bottom. The next few trading days are crucial. I’ll be watching miners for signs bottoming.
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For regular updates, please visit www.GoldPredict.com.
