Analysis and Recommendations: Gold ended the day almost flat after tumbling in the Asian session earlier. Gold reclaimed its losses to trade at 1697.55.
Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold ended the day almost flat after tumbling in the Asian session earlier. Gold reclaimed its losses to trade at 1697.55. With little in the way of market data and light news flow, traders are focused on US lawmakers. U.S. House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner’s offer to accept a tax rate increase for the wealthiest Americans removes a key Republican road block to a deal resolving the year-end “fiscal cliff”. But there is no imminent sight of an agreement, as President Barack Obama will face stiff Democratic opposition to cuts in entitlement spending. Gold barely responded to the news, and moved in a narrow range below $1,700 an ounce, after falling for the third straight week, despite a fresh bond buying scheme announced by the Federal Reserve last week.
The Fed said it would buy $45 billion in Treasury debt each month indefinitely starting next year. The program, which some said could raise inflation, replaced an inflation-sterilized bond-buying package that expires this month. If this entire extra stimulus that the Fed has done couldn’t get gold to break out to the upside, we don’t know what the catalyst is going to be right now. Gold is widely considered as a store of value and a hedge against inflation, but tends to wane in popularity with investors when inflation isn’t a concern. Gold trading volumes and the number of open futures positions have both declined in recent days as some traders leave the market during the holiday season, while others move to the sidelines to avoid the volatile price environment that can occur during times of low liquidity.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data December 17, 2012 actual v. forecast
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
Dec. 17 |
|
GBP |
|
|
Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) |
-3.3% |
|
|
|
-2.6% |
|
|
|
|
TRY |
|
|
Turkish Quarterly Unemployment Rate |
9.10% |
|
9.00% |
|
8.80% |
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Foreign Securities Purchases |
13.26B |
|
10.80B |
|
14.12B |
||
|
|
USD |
|
|
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index |
-8.1 |
|
-1.0 |
|
-5.2 |
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions |
1.3B |
|
25.0B |
|
3.2B |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
Dec. 18 |
09:30 |
GBP |
2.6% |
2.7% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.1% |
0.4% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.5% |
0.1% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-103.5B |
-117.4B |
|
Dec. 19 |
09:00 |
EUR |
102.0 |
101.4 |
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
108.0 |
108.1 |
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
96.3 |
95.2 |
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
25 |
33 |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.875M |
0.868M |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.870M |
0.894M |
|
Dec. 20 |
09:30 |
GBP |
0.3% |
-0.8% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.5% |
0.6% |
|
Dec. 21 |
07:00 |
EUR |
5.9 |
5.9 |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-14.0B |
-20.8B |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Dec 18 01:30 Japan
Dec 18 09:30 Spain
Dec 18 10:10 Greece
Dec 18 18:00 US
Dec 19 18:00 US
Dec 20 10:30 UK
Dec 20 16:30 Italy
Dec 20 18:00 US
Dec 21 16:30 Italy