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Gold Fundamental Analysis December 18, 2012, Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Gold ended the day almost flat after tumbling in the Asian session earlier. Gold reclaimed its losses to trade at 1697.55.

Gold Fundamental Analysis December 18, 2012, Forecast
Gold Fundamental Analysis December 18, 2012, Forecast
Gold Fundamental Analysis December 18, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold ended the day almost flat after tumbling in the Asian session earlier. Gold reclaimed its losses to trade at 1697.55. With little in the way of market data and light news flow, traders are focused on US lawmakers. U.S. House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner’s offer to accept a tax rate increase for the wealthiest Americans removes a key Republican road block to a deal resolving the year-end “fiscal cliff”.  But there is no imminent sight of an agreement, as President Barack Obama will face stiff Democratic opposition to cuts in entitlement spending.  Gold barely responded to the news, and moved in a narrow range below $1,700 an ounce, after falling for the third straight week, despite a fresh bond buying scheme announced by the Federal Reserve last week.

The Fed said it would buy $45 billion in Treasury debt each month indefinitely starting next year. The program, which some said could raise inflation, replaced an inflation-sterilized bond-buying package that expires this month. If this entire extra stimulus that the Fed has done couldn’t get gold to break out to the upside, we don’t know what the catalyst is going to be right now. Gold is widely considered as a store of value and a hedge against inflation, but tends to wane in popularity with investors when inflation isn’t a concern. Gold trading volumes and the number of open futures positions have both declined in recent days as some traders leave the market during the holiday season, while others move to the sidelines to avoid the volatile price environment that can occur during times of low liquidity.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 17, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 17

 

GBP

 

 

Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) 

-3.3%

 

 

 

-2.6% 

 

 

 

 

TRY

 

 

Turkish Quarterly Unemployment Rate 

9.10%

 

9.00% 

 

8.80% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Foreign Securities Purchases 

13.26B

 

10.80B 

 

14.12B 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-8.1

 

-1.0 

 

-5.2 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

1.3B

 

25.0B 

 

3.2B 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Dec. 18

09:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

2.7%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

-0.1%

0.4%

 

09:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.5%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (YoY) 

-0.5%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Current Account 

-103.5B

-117.4B

Dec. 19

09:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

102.0

101.4

 

09:00

EUR

German Current Assessment 

108.0

108.1

 

09:00

EUR

German Business Expectations 

96.3

95.2

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

25

33

 

13:30

USD

Building Permits 

0.875M

0.868M

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts 

0.870M

0.894M

Dec. 20 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

-0.8%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

1.5%

0.6%

Dec. 21

07:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.9

5.9

 

09:30

GBP

Current Account 

-14.0B

-20.8B

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

1.0%

1.0%

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) 

-0.1%

-0.1%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 18 01:30 Japan 

Dec 18 09:30 Spain 

Dec 18 10:10 Greece 

Dec 18 18:00 US 

Dec 19 18:00 US 

Dec 20 10:30 UK 

Dec 20 16:30 Italy  

Dec 20 18:00 US 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

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