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Gold Fundamental Analysis December 24, 2012 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Gold recovered a bit of yesterday’s loss adding 4.35 to trade at 1650.25. Gold prices fell to their lowest level in nearly

Gold Fundamental Analysis December 24, 2012 Forecast
Gold Fundamental Analysis December 24, 2012 Forecast
Gold Fundamental Analysis December 24, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold recovered a bit of yesterday’s loss adding 4.35 to trade at 1650.25. Gold prices fell to their lowest level in nearly four months as investors, buoyed by an improving U.S. economy, shifted out of haven assets. Analysts and investors said gold’s drop was triggered by the Commerce Department’s upward revision of U.S. gross domestic product for the third quarter to 3.1% from 2.7%.Some market participants blamed Thursday’s selloff on the news that Morgan Stanley’s wealth management division is no longer recommending two funds led by hedge-fund manager John Paulson. Mr. Paulson’s funds are among the largest investors in gold and gold equities. Others pointed to prospects of higher taxes in 2013 as talks between the White House and congressional Republicans to avert automatic tax increases and spending cuts have stalled.

The latest developments in the US fiscal cliff talks elevated concerns over the US economic outlook. If the US authorities fail to reach a consensus before the deadline, it could push the economy into recession and might support bullion. Gold dropped to its lowest level in August in the previous session, pressured by positive US economic releases and heavy liquidation by the hedge funds. At the same time, as per IMF monthly statistics, Iraq and Brazil raised its gold holdings whereas Turkey cuts its holdings in the latest months

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 21, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 21

 

JPY

 

 

BoJ Monthly Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.6

 

5.9 

 

5.8 

   

 

 

HUF

 

 

Hungarian Retail Sales (YoY) 

-3.70%

 

-2.60% 

 

-3.10% 

 

 

 

 

PLN

 

 

Polish Unemployment Rate 

12.90%

 

12.80% 

 

12.50% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Business Investment (QoQ) 

3.8%

 

3.5% 

 

3.7% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Current Account 

-12.8B

 

-14.0B 

 

-17.4B 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.9%

 

1.0% 

 

1.0% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (YoY) 

0.0%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

 

BRL

 

 

Brazilian Unemployment Rate 

4.9%

 

5.1% 

 

5.3% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.1% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core Durable Goods Orders

1.6%

 

-0.2% 

 

1.9% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.1% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.2% 

 

1.1% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

GDP (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.1% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.1% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

0.8%

 

1.0% 

 

1.2% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP CAD and USD

There are no eco events on the calendar for Monday, December 24 and markets will be closed on Tuesday December 25th. Traders and politicians are expected to be out of their offices for the season with low volume and low volatility. The only global issue is the US fiscal deadline. I would like to wish all of my readers a safe and healthy holiday season and all the best in the new year.

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

Dec 26 01:30 Japan 

Dec 27 10:10 Italy  

Dec 28 10:10 Italy  

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