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Gold Fundamental Analysis March 1, 2013 Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations: Gold dipped to trade at 1590.60 unable to summon the strength to challenge the 1600 level of resistance. Gold is set for the
Gold dipped to trade at 1590.60 unable to summon the strength to challenge the 1600 level of resistance. Gold is set for the biggest monthly drop since May and the longest streak of declines since 1997, as improving economies curbed demand for bullion as a haven asset.
Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded product backed by the precious metal, slid 12 metric tons to 1,258.4 tons, the lowest since August, according to figures on the fund’s website. Investors cut ETP holdings by more than 100 tons this month on concern a 12-year Bull Run is coming to an end, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Declines by the euro against the dollar also hurt gold. Bullion and the greenback, which gained for a third session in four against the single European currency, tend to move inversely.
Bernanke said the U.S. jobless rate is unlikely to reach more normal levels for several years, but there were few surprises in his second day of testimony to the Congress. It is unlikely that Congress will act to stop the $85 billion in across-the-board cuts due to start Friday. The cuts, mandated by a 2011 deficit reduction law, dent gold’s inflation-hedge appeal. Three rounds of quantative easing have helped gold to a record-breaking rally in the past few years, but signs of U.S. economic recovery have weighed heavily on the metal this year.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data February 28, 2013 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Feb. 28 |
|
KRW |
|
|
South Korean Industrial Production (YoY) |
7.3% |
|
6.3% |
|
-0.5% |
||
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Industrial Production (MoM) |
1.0% |
|
1.5% |
|
2.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
HIA New Home Sales (MoM) |
4.2% |
|
|
|
6.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) |
-1.2% |
|
1.0% |
|
1.1% |
||
|
|
|
CHF |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
0.2% |
|
-0.3% |
|
0.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
French Consumer Spending (MoM) |
-0.8% |
|
-0.2% |
|
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Unemployment Rate |
6.9% |
|
6.8% |
|
6.9% |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Unemployment Change |
-3K |
|
-5K |
|
-14K |
||
|
|
|
NOK |
|
|
Norwegian Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
1.00% |
|
0.50% |
|
0.20% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
CPI (YoY) |
2.0% |
|
2.0% |
|
2.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Core CPI (YoY) |
1.3% |
|
1.5% |
|
1.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
INR |
|
|
Indian GDP (YoY) |
4.5% |
|
5.0% |
|
5.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German CPI (MoM) |
0.6% |
|
0.7% |
|
-0.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German CPI (YoY) |
1.5% |
|
1.6% |
|
1.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Current Account |
-17.3B |
|
-17.0B |
|
-18.0B |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Initial Jobless Claims |
344K |
|
360K |
|
366K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
0.1% |
|
0.5% |
|
-0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3074K |
|
3160K |
|
3165K |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Mar. 01 |
01:00 |
CNY |
50.50 |
50.40 |
|
|
|
01:45 |
CNY |
50.40 |
50.40 |
|
|
|
07:00 |
GBP |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
|
|
08:30 |
CHF |
52.2 |
52.5 |
|
|
|
08:45 |
EUR |
47.60 |
47.80 |
|
|
|
08:50 |
EUR |
43.6 |
43.6 |
|
|
|
08:55 |
EUR |
50.1 |
50.1 |
|
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
47.8 |
47.8 |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
14:55 |
USD |
76.3 |
76.3 |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
52.5 |
53.1 |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Mar 05 10:10 Norway
Mar 05 10:15 Austria
Mar 05 10:30 Belgium
Mar 05 10:30 UK
Mar 05 15:30 UK
Mar 06 10:10 Sweden
Mar 06 10:30 Germany
Mar 07 09:30 Spain
Mar 07 09:50 France
Mar 07 15:30 Sweden
Mar 07 16:30 Italy
Mar 07 16:00 US
Mar 08 11:30 Belgium
Mar 08 16:30 Italy
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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