Gold Fundamental Analysis October 21, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold added $2.50 to trade at 1241.50 as traders continue to access the US Feds upcoming decisions. Gold was underpinned after James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed and a top U.S. central banker, said the Fed should keep buying bonds for longer than planned in the face of volatile markets and falling inflation expectations, even as another Fed policymaker warned against over-reaction.

 Gold prices traded positive last week as decline in global equities followed by disappointing economic data from the US, sparking economic fears and lifting gold’s safe haven appeal.

US equities traded lower after the U.S. government said retail sales slipped in September and producer prices fell, worrisome signals on the economy’s health that heightened financial market worries over faltering global growth. Economic data from Europe has remained weak and a worse-than-expected inflation reading from China weighed on gold, an inflation hedge.

Gold took some support from physical markets. Gold imports in India, the world’s second-biggest consumer of the metal, nearly doubled in September from August to $3.75 billion, ahead of the country’s wedding and festival season.

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust gained by 1.49 tonnes to 760.93 tonnes. In a year-to-date basis, holdings have declined by 37.29 tonnes, or 4.67 percent.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 21 10:30 Spain 3 & 9M T-bill auction

Oct 21 11:00 Finland Maximum Eur 1bn 2.75% Jul 2028 bonds

Oct 21 11:00 Norway Nok 3bn 3% Mar 2024 bonds

Oct 21 11:00 UK GBP 3bn 2.75% Sep 2024 Gilt

Oct 21 12:30 ESM Up to Eur 1bn 6M T-bills (Apr 2015)

Oct 22 11:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn 2.5% Aug 2046 Bund

Oct 23 11:03 Sweden Sek 1bn 0.5% Jun 2017 I/L bond

Oct 23 17:00 US Announces 2/5/7Y Note & 2Y FRN auctions on Oct 28/29/30

Oct 23 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPei/CTZ auctions on Oct 28

Oct 23 19:00 US USD 7bn 30Y TIPS auction

Oct 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 29

Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction

Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30

Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions

Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction

Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction

Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction

Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction

Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction