Gold News: August’s 4.78% Gold Price Surge Sparks Bullish Price Prediction

Gold Climbs as Inflation Data Fuels Fed Rate Cut Bets

Gold (XAU/USD) rose on Friday, gaining $30.38 (0.89%) to settle at $3447.44, as traders ramped up bets on a Fed rate cut following U.S. inflation data. The metal cleared key resistance levels at $3439.04 and $3451.53, confirming a breakout that puts the all-time high of $3500.20 within reach. Gold finished August up 4.78%, its strongest monthly gain since April.

U.S. consumer spending rose solidly in July, while the PCE price index increased 0.2% on the month and 2.6% year-over-year—both matching expectations. However, core PCE rose slightly to 2.9%, signaling that underlying inflation remains sticky. Traders boosted the probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s September meeting to nearly 89%, up from 63% at the start of August.

A weaker dollar added further support. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell 2.19% in August, closing Friday at 97.855. The 50-day moving average, currently near 98.000, could act as resistance going forward. With the DXY trading below that level, the dollar outlook remains bearish—a positive backdrop for gold.

Fed Policy Outlook Keeps Gold in Focus

Gold continues to benefit from growing expectations of Fed easing. Non-yielding assets like gold tend to outperform when rates fall, and investors are already positioning accordingly. Inflows into gold ETFs totaled nearly 15 tons over the past two sessions.

Still, some analysts remain cautious. While the breakout above $3400 is constructive, Friday’s high of $3453.97 now becomes the next resistance level. Key support sits at the 50-day moving average at $3349.60, which remains a pivotal level for the current trend.

Political Pressure on the Fed Adds a Layer of Risk

Legal efforts by President Trump to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook have introduced fresh uncertainty around central bank independence. While no ruling has been issued, any perceived shift in the Fed’s balance could influence rate expectations and asset pricing. For now, the situation is lending modest support to gold.

Gold Prices Forecast: Bullish Outlook Holds as Key Levels Break

Gold’s decisive break above former tops confirms a bullish structure heading into September. With the DXY trending below its 50-day moving average and resistance now seen at Friday’s $3453.97 high, momentum remains on gold’s side. A move beyond that level would open the door to a test of the all-time high at $3500.20, while support rests at $3349.60.