Gold News: Dovish Fed Signals and Trade Risks Fuel Bullish Gold Price Predictions

Gold Climbs as Dollar Loses Steam, Fed Rate Bets and Tariff Tensions Underpin Safe-Haven Bid

XAU/USD prices pushed higher Friday, extending a run of strength as the U.S. dollar eased and Treasury yields edged lower. Broad-based demand for safe-haven assets remained supported by tariff uncertainty, dovish Federal Reserve commentary, and soft labor market signals, all combining to keep gold on firm footing at key resistance.

Dollar Index Retreats Despite Weekly Gain—Is the Fed Losing Control?

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) settled at 98.462 on Friday, down 0.16% for the session, but still ended the week up 0.61%. The dollar’s pullback followed a volatile stretch driven by mixed U.S. inflation data, political pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and rising trade tensions. Although consumer prices edged higher, the producer price index was flat. Still, tariff-driven inflation risks have delayed market expectations for a Fed rate cut.

Fed Governor Chris Waller struck a dovish tone, openly backing a July rate cut and arguing for proactive easing in light of weakening private-sector labor data. With fed funds futures now pricing in 45 basis points of easing by year-end, gold’s non-yielding status becomes increasingly attractive against the backdrop of falling yields.

Treasury Yields Dip as Rate Cut Bets Firm

Benchmark 10-year yields slipped to 4.42%, while the 2-year yield dropped to 3.87%, a notable decline that confirms easing pressure on the short end of the curve. Lower yields help support gold prices, which gain in appeal as opportunity costs fall. The broader Treasury complex reflected safe-haven flows, despite upbeat U.S. housing and retail data suggesting the economy remains stable for now.

Geopolitical and Trade Tensions Keep Safe-Haven Demand Alive

President Trump’s renewed tariff threats on EU goods—reportedly demanding 15%-20% levies—rekindled market anxiety. Talks with Japan and Indonesia remain unresolved, and traders are bracing for further trade friction. These developments, alongside speculation over Powell’s job security, have strengthened the case for safe-haven exposure.

Precious metals, including gold, rallied broadly on the back of a weaker dollar. Analysts from Marex and Standard Chartered both underscored gold’s resilience, with the latter noting that gold’s “floor looks well supported.”

Gold Prices Forecast: Bullish Bias Holds Above Support Zones

Gold settled at $3,350.10, holding above the 50-day SMA (near $3,324.70) and exact support at $3,310.48. Upside targets remain at $3,377.66 and $3,451.53, with breakout potential toward $3,500.20 if dollar weakness and rate cut momentum continue.

Given solid technical structure and fundamental tailwinds—soft dollar, falling yields, and tariff risk—gold retains a bullish outlook. Any dovish confirmation from the Fed or further labor market softening could unlock fresh upside in the coming sessions.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.