Gold News: Gold Analysis Shows Bulls Defending $4192.36 Ahead of PCE and FOMC

Gold Price Steadies Above Key Zone as Traders Brace for PCE and FOMC

Spot Gold is extending its gain on Friday, holding the strong side of the $4133.95–$4192.36 retracement zone as traders position ahead of the delayed September PCE release. With this print serving as the final data point before next week’s FOMC meeting, the market has tightened around levels that matter, waiting for confirmation on inflation’s direction and the Fed’s next move.

At 12:20 GMT, XAGUSD is trading $4226.87, up $18.10 or +0.43%.

A softer dollar near a five-week low has helped gold hold a bid, and ongoing expectations for another 25-bp rate cut next week have limited downside interest. The combination has kept buyers comfortable defending $4192.36, even as Treasury yields firmed on Thursday.

Gold Price Holds Above Key Zone as PCE Inflation Expected to Reheat

Today’s report is expected to show PCE inflation rising 2.8% year-over-year in September, up from 2.7% in August, which would be the hottest reading since April 2024. Core PCE is forecast to rise 2.9%, matching August and marking the 55th consecutive month above the Fed’s 2% target. Much of the recent firming has been tied to tariff-driven cost pressures that retailers have passed along to consumers. Even so, inflation remains well off its 2022 peak, and many forecasters expect it to stay above target for years.

The report was delayed by the government shutdown, but it now arrives at a critical moment. Despite stickier inflation, the Fed has already cut rates at its last two meetings, and policymakers continue to signal concern about the cooling labor market. That tension—high inflation but softening jobs—has left traders confident the Fed will cut again next week.

Rate-Cut Expectations Offset Firm Yields

Private payrolls fell by 32,000 in November, while jobless claims dropped to 191,000, a move distorted by the holiday week but still reinforcing expectations for policy easing. Futures markets are pricing nearly 90% confidence in a quarter-point cut. That bias has outweighed Thursday’s rise in yields, with the 10-year at 4.102%, the 30-year at 4.761%, and the 2-year at 3.523%.

Gold Price Forecast: Bullish While $4192.36 Holds

A hold above $4192.36 keeps the bullish bias intact, leaving room for a run at $4264.70 and a potential continuation toward the $4381.44 record high. A slip back toward $4133.95 would not break the trend but would test conviction before the $4076.63 50-day moving average. PCE’s tone will dictate whether buyers press the breakout setup into the FOMC or wait for a cleaner signal next week.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.