Gold News: Hot ADP Print May Push Gold Toward $3846.50–$3720.25 Fib Retracement Zone

Fed Pushback, Dollar Strength Drive Gold Below $4000

Gold (XAU/USD) posted its sharpest weekly loss since early October, settling at $4002.81 — down $111.31 or 2.71% — as rising U.S. yields, a resurgent dollar, and renewed skepticism over further Fed easing weighed heavily on investor appetite for non-yielding assets.

The market entered the week fully pricing in another cut by year-end. That changed after the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement on Wednesday. While the Fed delivered a 25 bp cut as expected, Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that further easing is not guaranteed, citing growing division among policymakers. December cut odds dropped from 91.1% to 63% by Friday, per CME FedWatch.

Additional pressure came from Fed speakers, including Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, who said she opposed the cut altogether, citing persistent inflation and the need to maintain restrictive policy.

Dollar Index Breakout Applies Pressure to Gold Bulls

The U.S. Dollar Index closed at 99.716, up 0.79%, after hitting a three-month high of 99.884. Chart momentum suggests the dollar may push toward 100.257, with higher levels in sight. A firming greenback continues to undercut gold by raising costs for international buyers and drawing capital back to yield-bearing assets.

Yields added to the bearish tone. The 10-year Treasury bounced from 3.936%, with the mid-September high at 4.199% now in focus. A breakout would likely drive rates toward the 52-week average at 4.331%, further weakening gold’s interest rate appeal.

Trade Progress and Risk-On Sentiment Erode Safe-Haven Demand

Risk appetite improved last week following trade remarks from President Trump. The proposed tariff rollback in exchange for Chinese action on rare earths and fentanyl enforcement signaled potential de-escalation. Equities rallied on the headlines, pulling flows away from defensive assets.

ETF demand also softened, while physical and central bank buying offered limited support. The absence of a strong bid last week suggests positioning has turned cautious ahead of more data.

Gold Price Forecast: Support Zone Tested as Market Awaits Policy Clarity

Gold hit a low of $3886.46 on Tuesday — just above the 50%–61.8% retracement zone between $3846.50 and $3720.25 — before bouncing back to close the week at $4002.81. That reaction suggests buyers are starting to engage, but staying power depends on incoming data.

Wednesday’s ADP National Employment Report and Friday’s University of Michigan Sentiment Index now take center stage. A soft read on either front could revive December cut odds and firm up support. If not, and the dollar stays bid, pressure could build for a deeper test of $3720.25, with $3500.20 on deck.

For now, gold sits at a technical and policy crossroads — and it’s the Fed’s next move that will decide who takes control.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.