Gold News: Trump Tariffs Fuel Inflation Fears as Gold Price Awaits Fed Clarity

Gold Grinds Higher as Fed Rate Cut Hopes and Trump Tariffs Weigh on Dollar

Gold is edging higher Thursday, stabilizing after yesterday’s early drop found support at $3,282.66 before reclaiming the $3,310.48 pivot.

Gains remain capped by the 50-day moving average at $3,323.50, with another resistance level near the short-term pivot at $3,347.97. The market remains locked in a tight three-week range as traders await a clear catalyst from Trump’s tariffs and the Fed’s policy path.

At 12:07 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3318.16, up $4.46 or +0.13%.

Will the Fed Finally Signal a Cut?

Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting showed most officials see rate cuts likely this year, even as they held rates steady last month.

The 10-year Treasury yield slid to 4.342%, while the 2-year yield dropped to 3.853%, reinforcing expectations that easing is on the table if inflation and hiring weaken.

For gold, lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, supporting bids above $3,310 if the Fed’s signals align with market hopes.

Trump Tariffs Threaten Fresh Inflation Risks

President Trump’s escalation of his tariff campaign, with 50% levies on copper imports and goods from Brazil effective August 1, along with additional 20-40% tariffs on other nations, has traders weighing fresh inflation concerns.

While global equities shrugged off the latest salvos, ongoing uncertainty over tariffs feeds a potential inflation bid for gold, particularly if energy prices rise on supply concerns tied to policy tensions.

Dollar Weakness Lends Gold a Hand

The dollar index eased 0.2%, supported by increasing bets that the Fed will cut rates later this year. IMF data shows the dollar’s share of global reserves dipping to 57.7% as the Swiss franc and euro gained ground, reflecting broader sentiment shifts.

A softer dollar supports gold by making it less expensive for other currency holders, aligning with the pullback needed for a sustained move above key resistance zones.

Gold Prices Forecast: Rangebound, Waiting for a Catalyst

Swing chart traders are watching the range between $3,244.41 and $3,365.92, with a midpoint at $3,305.17 providing a pivot area for near-term positioning. Moving average traders remain focused on the 50-day MA at $3,323.50 for directional confirmation, while pivot traders eye support at $3,310.48 and resistance at $3,347.97.

For now, gold prices forecast a rangebound grind, waiting for clarity from Trump’s tariffs and the Fed’s next move. A confirmed break above $3,347.97 could open a push toward $3,365.92, while a drop below $3,282.66 would warn of deeper profit-taking toward $3,244.41.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.