Gold Price Analysis – Gold Continues to See Headline Risks

Gold Technical Analysis

The gold market has fallen over the last 24 hours, but the futures market itself won’t be active for much of Friday. Therefore, we are somewhat flying blind other than paying close attention to the $4,600 level. The $4,600 level is an area that has been important multiple times, and it should continue to be so.

The 50-day EMA is at the $4,800 level, and I think that it is an area that you have to look very closely at because if we can break above there, it opens up the possibility of gold going to the $5,000 level. While I don’t necessarily think that happens right away, I do think eventually gold does start to pick up some momentum.

Safe Haven Momentum Technical Analysis

This all comes down to the 10-year yield in the United States. At least that’s the metric I’m using for interest rates, as the 4.3% level continues to be very important. With markets basically closed on Friday, that isn’t going to really come into play unless there is some type of external headline, maybe something coming out of the Middle East, that could move the markets.

I do think gold probably pulls back a little bit unless we get good news, but I think we are getting closer to a bit of a bottom and perhaps the possibility that gold behaves like a safe haven asset. My email box is full of people wondering why there’s a war going on and gold has been falling for the most part, and that comes down to interest rates.

Gold is a non-yielding asset, and non-yielding assets don’t fare as well in an environment where rates start jumping. It is a very complex subject, but the reality is gold probably has a little bit of bouncing around to do in order to build up enough momentum to turn things around.

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