Gold initially tried to break higher on Friday but gave back a bit of the gains. This is a market that continues to see the US dollar make its presence known.
Gold markets went to the upside during the trading session on Friday, but then turned around to break below the 50 day EMA. All things being equal, the 50 day EMA is relatively sideways, which shows that there is no real decisive momentum one way or the other, and it is likely that we continue to grind sideways in the short term. Longer-term, I am much more bullish on gold than anything else, due to the fact that the central banks around the world will continue to liquefy markets, which of course drives up the demand for hard assets as fiat starts to fall.
The gold markets have quite a bit of support underneath, near the $1850 level. Ultimately, I think that even if we break down through their it is likely that we are going to go looking towards the $1800 level. That is an area that was the scene of a recent break out, and therefore there should be a significant amount of “market memory” in that area that should now offer support. Because of this, I would be looking for some type of bounce to take advantage of.
That being said, I like the idea of finding value in a market that will clearly go higher over the longer term all things being equal. In the short term though, the market is starting to weigh in the idea of stimulus being delayed, so the US dollar has had a bit of a reprieve. With that in mind, I buy dips but I do it in small bits and pieces so I can build up a larger position.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.