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Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – August 16, 2017 Forecast

By:
James Hyerczyk
Updated: Aug 16, 2017, 12:19 UTC

December Comex Gold futures are trading lower shortly before the regular session opening. Rising Treasury yields, a firmer U.S. Dollar and increasing

Gold

December Comex Gold futures are trading lower shortly before the regular session opening. Rising Treasury yields, a firmer U.S. Dollar and increasing demand for higher-yielding assets are weighing on the market.

Yesterday, it was a robust U.S. retail sales report that drove prices lower. Today, investors will get the opportunity to react to U.S. housing data early in the session and the FOMC monetary policy meeting late in the session. A hawkish Fed should be bearish for gold and a dovish Fed should be bullish, however, the direction of the market will ultimately be determined by the direction of U.S. Treasury yields.

Comex Gold
Daily December Comex Gold

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1298.10 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through $1257.10 will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is $1257.10 to $1298.10. Its retracement zone at $1277.60 to $1272.80 is currently being tested. The major retracement zone support is $1269.40 to $1258.30. Combining the two retracement zones identifies $1272.80 to $1269.40 as the key area to watch for support.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $1276.00, the direction of the market is being controlled by two levels, $1277.60 and $1272.80.

A sustained move over $1277.60 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a test of the downtrending angle at $1286.10. This is followed by a pair of downtrending angles at $1292.10 and $1295.10. The latter is the last potential resistance angle before the $1298.10 main top.

Crossing to the weak side of $1272.80 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a labored break into a series of potential support levels at $1269.40, $1269.10 and $1265.10.

The trigger point for a steep breakdown is $1265.10. Taking out this level could drive the market into the major 50% level at $1258.30 and the main bottom at $1257.10.

Basically, look for a bullish tone on a move over $1277.60 and a bearish tone on a move under $1272.80.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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