Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – January 31, 2019 Forecast

Gold futures are trading higher on Thursday, but remain slightly below the multi-month high reached during yesterday’s session. The market is likely being underpinned by an overnight drop in Treasury yields. Steady equity futures and a U.S. Dollar that may be reversing from early session weakness may be putting a lid on prices.

At 10:46 GMT, April Comex gold is trading $1327.30, up $11.80 or +0.89%.

The catalyst behind the early strength may be yesterday’s dovish message from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The uncertainty in the market is being driven by worries over U.S.-China trade relations. Today is the last day of high-level trade talks between the economic powerhouses. Positive news could be bearish for gold prices.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1328.60 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The next major top is $1337.80. A trade through $1281.50 will change the main trend to down.

Today is the fifth day up from the last main bottom. Nonetheless, due to the steep rally, buyers should start watching for signs of selling pressure. A trade through $1328.60 and a lower close will produce a technically bearish closing price reversal top.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the April Comex gold market on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $1328.60.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1328.60 will indicate the presence of buyers. If they can generate enough upside momentum then look for buyers to take a run at the June 14, 2018 top at $1337.80.

Bearish Scenario

The failure to overcome $1328.60 or sustain a rally over this level will signal the presence of sellers. Turning lower for the session will indicate the selling is getting stronger.

The key Gann angle to watch is at $1321.50. This angle has been guiding the market higher since January 24. Look for a technical bounce on the first test of this angle. If it fails then look for the selling to extend into the major Fibonacci level at $1319.70.

The Fib level is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the first target the short-term 50% level at $1305.10. This is followed closely by an uptrending Gann angle at $1301.50 and a short-term Fib level at $1299.50.