Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – July 11, 2017 Forecast

August Comex Gold futures are trading lower shortly before the regular session opening. The market had a slight follow-through to the upside earlier in the session, confirming yesterday’s potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom by only 60 cents before retreating.

The closing price reversal bottom does not mean the trend is getting ready to turn up. In this case, it probably means the market ran out of sellers as the market approached a long-term uptrending angle, the March 10 bottom and a major Fibonacci level. In addition, the market is currently sitting inside a major 50% to 61.8% retracement zone, which is usually a good place take profits or attract aggressive counter-trend buyers.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1204.00 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

Taking out today’s intraday high will signal the return of buyers. This type of action could trigger a short-covering rally.

The major range is being formed by the December 15, 2016 bottom at $1133.30 and the April 17, 2017 main top at $1300.30. The market is currently trading inside its retracement zone at $1216.80 to $1197.10.

The short-term range is $1260.00 to $1204.00. Its retracement zone is $1232.00 to $1238.60. If the closing price reversal bottom gains traction then its retracement zone at $1232.00 to $1238.60 will become the primary upside target.

The extremely short-term range is yesterday’s low at $1204.00 to today’s high at $1215.60. Its 50% or pivot is $1209.80. This price could control the direction of the market the rest of the day.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $1209.50, the direction of gold the rest of the day will be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at $1209.80.

A sustained move over $1209.80 will signal the presence of buyers. This could drive the market into the resistance cluster at $1216.00 to $1216.80. The trigger point for an acceleration to the upside is $1216.80. Taking this level out with aggressive buying could fuel a move into $1232.00.

A sustained move under $1209.80 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could trigger a break into a cluster of potential support levels at $1204.00, $1203.80, $1201.40 and $1197.10.

Look out to the downside if $1197.10 fails. The next major target is $1168.50.