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James Hyerczyk
Comex Gold

Gold futures are trading nearly flat on Monday at the mid-session. Volume and volatility are both below average. Several factors could be influencing the price action including Treasury yields, the U.S. Dollar and demand for risk. There were no major economic reports today and the Fed speakers are on lockdown so traders aren’t receiving a lot of guidance.

At 15:41 GMT, August Comex gold futures are trading $1426.90, up $0.20 or +0.01%.

The low volume and volatility could continue into Thursday’s European Central Bank policy meeting and interest rate decision. Next week on July 31, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25-basis points.

Daily December Comex Gold

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, the upside momentum stalled with the formation of the closing price reversal top at $1454.40 on July 19.

A trade through $1454.40 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade though $1421.10 will confirm the closing price reversal top and signal a shift in momentum to down. The main trend will actually change to down on a move through $1401.30.

The short-term range is $1387.50 to $1454.40. Its retracement zone at $1419.60 to $1411.30 is support.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at $1426.90, the direction of the August Comex gold futures contract into the close will likely be determined by trader reaction to the short-term uptrending Gann angle at $1423.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1423.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. The next targets are a pair of uptrending Gann angles at $1435.60 and $1442.60. The latter is the last potential target before the main top at $1454.40.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1423.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could create a labored break with potential targets a short-term 50% level at $1419.60, a short-term Fibonacci level at $1411.30 and an uptrending Gann angle at $1405.50. This are the last potential support levels before the main bottom at $1401.30. The trend changes to down on a trade through this bottom.

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