Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – July 3, 2018 Forecast

Gold futures are trading higher shortly before the regular session opening. Short-sellers may be taking advantage of thin pre-holiday trading conditions to book profits and square positions ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. Fourth of July holiday and possible extended week-end.

As far as I know, the fundamentals remain the same. There has been no change in the trade friction between the United States and China despite a few misplaced headlines in the news today. There have been no reported changes, the U.S. is still set to place tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods on July 6.

At 1054 GMT, August Comex Gold futures are trading at $1248.10, up $6.40 or +0.52%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum may be shifting to the upside with the possible formation of a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

The formation of a closing price reversal bottom will not mean the trend is changing to up. This will only occur if buyers take out $1274.40. It could be an indication that the buying is greater than the selling at current price levels especially after the prolonged move down in terms of price and time and as the gold market nears the anniversary date of last year’s bottom at $1230.70 on July 7, 2017.

The short-term range is $1274.40 to $1238.80. Its 50% level or pivot is $1256.60. Since the trend is down, this price should be considered resistance.

The main range is $1313.00 to $1238.80. If the trend changes to up then look for a possible test of the retracement zone at $1275.90 to $1284.70.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at $1247.80, the direction of the August Comex Gold futures contract the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s close at $1241.70.

A sustained move over $1241.70 will indicate the presence of buyers. This will also put the market in a position to form a daily closing price reversal bottom.

If the move creates enough upside momentum then look for a test of the short-term downtrending Gann angle at $1250.40. Overtaking this angle could trigger a surge into the pivot at $1246.60, followed closely by the longer-term downtrending Gann angle at $1261.00.

Sellers could come in on the first test of $1261.00. However, if buyers can overcome this angle then look for a possible acceleration to the upside with potential targets $1274.40 and $1275.90.

A sustained move under $1241.70 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a retest of today’s intraday low at $1238.80. If this price fails then look for the selling to extend into $1230.70.

Basically, we’re looking for a possible closing price reversal bottom so $1241.70 has to hold and the market has to close over this level to form the first stage of the potential 2 to 3 day rally.