Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – March 11, 2019 Forecast

Gold futures are inching lower on Monday. The price action is being fueled by rising Treasury yields, mixed to firmer U.S. equity prices and a steady U.S. Dollar. There has been no follow-through to the upside following Friday’s massive rebound rally. This suggests that the move was fueled by short-covering rather than aggressive speculative buying.

At 10:54 GMT, April Comex gold futures are trading $1296.30, down $3.00 or -0.23%.

The current inside move suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. Traders could be waiting for the release of the U.S. retail sales report at 12:30 GMT before making their move today. Another weaker-than-expected report could spike prices to the upside. This news, combined with Friday’s mixed U.S. jobs report, could send a message to gold bulls that the economy is weakening faster than previously anticipated.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The market isn’t close to changing the main trend to up, but there is room to the upside to complete a normal 50% to 61.8% retracement.

A trade through $1280.80 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is $1209.30 to $1349.80. Its retracement zone at $1279.60 to $1263.00 is the primary downside target. Last week’s low came in at $1280.80.

The short-term range is $1349.80 to $1280.80. If the rally continues then its retracement zone at $1315.30 to $1323.40 will become the next upside target.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the April Comex gold market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at $1297.80.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1297.80 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first target is Friday’s high at $1301.30. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next target the short-term 50% level at $1315.30.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1297.80 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the long-term uptrending Gann angle at $1287.30. If this fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into $1280.80 to $1279.60.