Gold is currently testing the lower or Fibonacci level of its retracement zone at $1770.40. The 50% level is up at $1798.80.
Gold futures are down over 2% late Thursday as the U.S. Dollar gained ground after the U.S. Federal Reserve struck a hawkish tone on monetary strategy. A majority of 11 Fed officials on Wednesday projected at least two quarter-point rate hikes for 2023, although officials pledged to keep policy supportive for now to encourage a jobs recovery.
At 20:32 GMT, August Comex gold is trading $1774.25, down $38.25 or -2.11%.
Adding to gold’s headwinds, the U.S. central bank said it would consider whether it should taper its asset purchases at every subsequent policy meeting.
The market was also pressured by a strong U.S. Dollar, and the news that China would take steps to cool off rising prices.
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the April 29 main bottom at $1756.80 will reaffirm the downtrend. This could trigger a further break into the April 13 main bottom at $1725.50.
A trade through $1906.90 will change the main trend to up. This is highly unlikely, but since the market is down seven sessions from its last main top, we have to start watching for a closing price reversal bottom. This won’t change the main trend to up, but if confirmed, it could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.
The main range is $1678.40 to $1919.20. The market is currently testing the lower or Fibonacci level of its retracement zone at $1770.40. The 50% level is up at $1798.80.
We’re going to be watching the price action and reading the order flow at $1770.40 over the short-term to determine if the buying is starting to become stronger than the selling at this level.
If $1770.40 fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into $1756.80. If this fails then look for a possible acceleration to the downside with the next target the April 13 main bottom at $1725.50.
Essentially, we’re going to be watching to see if the liquidation selling will continue, or if counter-trend value-seekers will step in to stop the price slide.
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.