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Gold Price Prediction – Prices are Poised to Test the September Lows

By:
David Becker

Risk of trade weighs on gold prices

Gold Price Prediction – Prices are Poised to Test the September Lows

Gold prices moved lower as it has become viewed as a riskier asset during the most recent sell-off.  The dollar moved higher and benefited from the risk-off trade, as US treasury yields broke down below support near the 50-day moving average. As the spread of COVID-19 makes its way through the US and Europe, riskier assets have been sold. Volatility is also perking up. The GVZ which trades on the COBE and measures the “at the money” implied volatility on Gold, rose 7% to 22%.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices moved lower but remain rangebound. Prices are poised to test support is seen near the October lows at 1,872. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,904. Short-term momentum has whipsawed turning negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal on the upper end of the neutral range. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line. The MACD histogram also generated a crossover sell signal. The index sliced through the zero-index line. The histogram has a negative trajectory that points to lower prices.

About the Author

David Becker focuses his attention on various consulting and portfolio management activities at Fortuity LLC, where he currently provides oversight for a multimillion-dollar portfolio consisting of commodities, debt, equities, real estate, and more.

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