Gold Price Prediction – Prices Consolidate Despite Declining US Yields

Gold prices moved lower consolidating its recent gains after hitting a fresh 8-year high on Wednesday. The dollar rebounded on Thursday which generated some mild headwinds for gold prices. The 10-year US treasury yield dropped sharply declining to 60-basis points and closing at the 3^rd lowest level in history and the lowest close since mid-April. Fear that COVID continues to spread through the United States, is weighing on future growth prospects.  US jobless claims were smaller than expected showing that the declines in the job market have likely stabilized.

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Technical Analysis

Gold prices rallied consolidated and moved lower on Thursday after hitting fresh 8-year highs on Wednesday. Prices are now poised to test target resistance near the August 2011 highs at $1,921. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,783 and additional support is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,735. Short term momentum has turned negative and continues to whipsaw making new signals almost daily. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 89, down from 94 on Wednesday and still well above the overbought trigger level of 80 which could foreshadow a correction. Medium-term momentum remains positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

US Jobless Claims Beat Expectations

The Labor Department reported that weekly jobless claims were lower than expected last week. Claims for the week ended July 4 totaled 1.314 million, compared with the 1.39 million expected. The total marked a decrease of 99,000 from a week earlier. The four-week moving average of claims, fell 14,000 to 1.43 million. Continuing claims fell sharply, dropping 698,000 from a week earlier to 18.06 million. The previous week’s total itself was revised down by 530,000. Wall Street had been expecting 18.9 million continuing claims.