Gold Price Prediction – Prices Edge Higher as Trade Analysis Takes Center-Stage

Chinese imports and exports ease
David Becker
Gold ingots and coins

Gold prices edged higher on Monday, following Friday’s drop which came as investors absorbed the phase one of the US-Chinese trade agreement. The Chinese coverage of a trade agreement was not nearly as upbeat. Nothing was signed, which means that it’s still up for interpretation. China will buy more agriculture products from the US, but this was not a concession. The US will not go forward with the increase in tariffs on around $250 billion of Chinese goods from 25% to 30%, which is largely symbolic. Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet on the sidelines of the APEC meeting next month, in the middle of November. The mid-December tariff on about $160 billion of Chinese goods, is what is now a key decision for both sides. Trade-in China came in weaker than expected

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Technical Analysis

Gold prices moved higher on Monday forming an inside day. This is a lower high and a higher low which is a sign of indecision. Support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,472. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,496, and then a downward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,516. Short term momentum has whipsawed and turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. The fast stochastic is printing in the middle of the neutral range. Medium-term momentum has also turned negative. The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a declining trajectory which points to accelerating negative momentum.

 Chinese Imports and Exports Slumped

China’s imports and exports were weaker than expected and declined in September relative to August. The trade surplus widened to $39.65 billion in September from $34.78 billion. Exports were off 3.2% year-over-year after the 1.0% decline in August and forecasts for a 2.8% decline. Pork imports are 44% higher from a year ago, and beef imports are 54% higher, but overall imports contracted 8.5% in September following a 5.6% decline in August. China reported auto sales fell 6.6% year-over-year in September, the 15th decline in the past 16 months.

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